Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet has driven trader sentiment, surging to the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard shortly after its June 20 release, overtaking OpenAI's GPT-4o with superior Elo scores in coding, math, and vision tasks. Market-implied odds favor Anthropic at around 65% to hold the top rank by June 30, reflecting its sustained lead amid daily user votes, while OpenAI sits at 20% despite hype around upcoming "o1" reasoning models expected post-deadline. Google's Gemini trails, hampered by slower iteration, and xAI's Grok lags further. Traders eye leaderboard volatility—new votes could shift rankings—but no major launches loom before snapshot, tilting consensus toward Anthropic's edge in this snapshot race.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$1,151,534 Vol.

OpenAI
28%

xAI
12%

DeepSeek
8%

Z.ai
7%

アリババ
6%

Meta
6%

バイドゥ
4%

Nvidia
3%

Meituan
3%

Mistral
2%
$1,151,534 Vol.

OpenAI
28%

xAI
12%

DeepSeek
8%

Z.ai
7%

アリババ
6%

Meta
6%

バイドゥ
4%

Nvidia
3%

Meituan
3%

Mistral
2%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
マーケット開始日: Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet has driven trader sentiment, surging to the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard shortly after its June 20 release, overtaking OpenAI's GPT-4o with superior Elo scores in coding, math, and vision tasks. Market-implied odds favor Anthropic at around 65% to hold the top rank by June 30, reflecting its sustained lead amid daily user votes, while OpenAI sits at 20% despite hype around upcoming "o1" reasoning models expected post-deadline. Google's Gemini trails, hampered by slower iteration, and xAI's Grok lags further. Traders eye leaderboard volatility—new votes could shift rankings—but no major launches loom before snapshot, tilting consensus toward Anthropic's edge in this snapshot race.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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