Jon Bonck's dominant 46.8% finish atop a crowded 10-candidate Republican primary field for Texas' 38th Congressional District on March 3—more than double runner-up Shelly deZevallos' 18.8%—drives his 94% implied probability as the May 26 runoff frontrunner. Trump endorsement, Club for Growth support, and historical precedents where Texas GOP primary leaders decisively win runoffs underpin trader consensus in this solidly Republican open seat left by Rep. Wesley Hunt's U.S. Senate bid. With no post-primary polls or shifts in the past 30 days, upside remains limited. Scenarios like a Bonck scandal, deZevallos endorsement windfall, or turnout surge could challenge, though structural barriers favor continuity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日ジョン・ボンク 94.3%
シェリー・デゼヴァロス 1.4%
ジェニファー・サント 1.0%
エイブリー・エイヤーズ <1%
$26,316 Vol.
$26,316 Vol.
2026/05/26
ジョン・ボンク
94%
シェリー・デゼヴァロス
1%
ジェニファー・サント
1%
エイブリー・エイヤーズ
1%
マイケル・プラット
1%
ジェフ・ユナ
<1%
クレイグ・ゴラルスキー
<1%
ラリー・ルービン
<1%
バレット・マクナブ
<1%
カルメン・モンティエル
<1%
ジョン・ボンク 94.3%
シェリー・デゼヴァロス 1.4%
ジェニファー・サント 1.0%
エイブリー・エイヤーズ <1%
$26,316 Vol.
$26,316 Vol.
2026/05/26
ジョン・ボンク
$16,452 Vol.
94%
シェリー・デゼヴァロス
$3,015 Vol.
1%
ジェニファー・サント
$2,227 Vol.
1%
エイブリー・エイヤーズ
$2,210 Vol.
1%
マイケル・プラット
$0 Vol.
1%
ジェフ・ユナ
$2,411 Vol.
<1%
クレイグ・ゴラルスキー
$0 Vol.
<1%
ラリー・ルービン
$0 Vol.
<1%
バレット・マクナブ
$0 Vol.
<1%
カルメン・モンティエル
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jon Bonck's dominant 46.8% finish atop a crowded 10-candidate Republican primary field for Texas' 38th Congressional District on March 3—more than double runner-up Shelly deZevallos' 18.8%—drives his 94% implied probability as the May 26 runoff frontrunner. Trump endorsement, Club for Growth support, and historical precedents where Texas GOP primary leaders decisively win runoffs underpin trader consensus in this solidly Republican open seat left by Rep. Wesley Hunt's U.S. Senate bid. With no post-primary polls or shifts in the past 30 days, upside remains limited. Scenarios like a Bonck scandal, deZevallos endorsement windfall, or turnout surge could challenge, though structural barriers favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
マーケット開始日： Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
音量
$26,316終了日
2026/05/26マーケット開始日
Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jon Bonck's dominant 46.8% finish atop a crowded 10-candidate Republican primary field for Texas' 38th Congressional District on March 3—more than double runner-up Shelly deZevallos' 18.8%—drives his 94% implied probability as the May 26 runoff frontrunner. Trump endorsement, Club for Growth support, and historical precedents where Texas GOP primary leaders decisively win runoffs underpin trader consensus in this solidly Republican open seat left by Rep. Wesley Hunt's U.S. Senate bid. With no post-primary polls or shifts in the past 30 days, upside remains limited. Scenarios like a Bonck scandal, deZevallos endorsement windfall, or turnout surge could challenge, though structural barriers favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$26,316終了日
2026/05/26マーケット開始日
Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jon Bonck's dominant 46.8% finish atop a crowded 10-candidate Republican primary field for Texas' 38th Congressional District on March 3—more than double runner-up Shelly deZevallos' 18.8%—drives his 94% implied probability as the May 26 runoff frontrunner. Trump endorsement, Club for Growth support, and historical precedents where Texas GOP primary leaders decisively win runoffs underpin trader consensus in this solidly Republican open seat left by Rep. Wesley Hunt's U.S. Senate bid. With no post-primary polls or shifts in the past 30 days, upside remains limited. Scenarios like a Bonck scandal, deZevallos endorsement windfall, or turnout surge could challenge, though structural barriers favor continuity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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