Recent Léger polling from March 20-22 shows the Parti Québécois (PQ) and Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) tied at 33% among decided voters, with the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) collapsing to 9%—its lowest since 2011—amid ongoing leadership turmoil following Premier François Legault's January resignation. Despite the popular vote deadlock, seat projections from models like 338Canada give PQ a clear edge with 63 seats (54-72 range) versus PLQ's 47 (39-57), driven by PQ's 41% francophone support and dominance outside Greater Montreal, where PLQ leads at 44%. CAQ faces zero projected seats ahead of its April 12 leadership vote, while Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) at 15% lacks efficiency under first-past-the-post rules. Trader consensus prices PQ's path to plurality or majority highest at 57.5%, reflecting these regional dynamics six months before the October deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日PQ 57%
PLQ 32%
CAQ 8%
PCQ <1%
$381,386 Vol.
$381,386 Vol.
2026/10/05
PQ
57%
PLQ
32%
CAQ
8%
PCQ
1%
QS
<1%
PVQ
<1%
PQ 57%
PLQ 32%
CAQ 8%
PCQ <1%
$381,386 Vol.
$381,386 Vol.
2026/10/05
PQ
$37,015 Vol.
57%
PLQ
$39,071 Vol.
32%
CAQ
$37,068 Vol.
8%
PCQ
$118,848 Vol.
1%
QS
$46,161 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$103,223 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent Léger polling from March 20-22 shows the Parti Québécois (PQ) and Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) tied at 33% among decided voters, with the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) collapsing to 9%—its lowest since 2011—amid ongoing leadership turmoil following Premier François Legault's January resignation. Despite the popular vote deadlock, seat projections from models like 338Canada give PQ a clear edge with 63 seats (54-72 range) versus PLQ's 47 (39-57), driven by PQ's 41% francophone support and dominance outside Greater Montreal, where PLQ leads at 44%. CAQ faces zero projected seats ahead of its April 12 leadership vote, while Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) at 15% lacks efficiency under first-past-the-post rules. Trader consensus prices PQ's path to plurality or majority highest at 57.5%, reflecting these regional dynamics six months before the October deadline.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
マーケット開始日： Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
音量
$381,386終了日
2026/10/05マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent Léger polling from March 20-22 shows the Parti Québécois (PQ) and Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) tied at 33% among decided voters, with the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) collapsing to 9%—its lowest since 2011—amid ongoing leadership turmoil following Premier François Legault's January resignation. Despite the popular vote deadlock, seat projections from models like 338Canada give PQ a clear edge with 63 seats (54-72 range) versus PLQ's 47 (39-57), driven by PQ's 41% francophone support and dominance outside Greater Montreal, where PLQ leads at 44%. CAQ faces zero projected seats ahead of its April 12 leadership vote, while Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) at 15% lacks efficiency under first-past-the-post rules. Trader consensus prices PQ's path to plurality or majority highest at 57.5%, reflecting these regional dynamics six months before the October deadline.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
音量
$381,386終了日
2026/10/05マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Léger polling from March 20-22 shows the Parti Québécois (PQ) and Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) tied at 33% among decided voters, with the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) collapsing to 9%—its lowest since 2011—amid ongoing leadership turmoil following Premier François Legault's January resignation. Despite the popular vote deadlock, seat projections from models like 338Canada give PQ a clear edge with 63 seats (54-72 range) versus PLQ's 47 (39-57), driven by PQ's 41% francophone support and dominance outside Greater Montreal, where PLQ leads at 44%. CAQ faces zero projected seats ahead of its April 12 leadership vote, while Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) at 15% lacks efficiency under first-past-the-post rules. Trader consensus prices PQ's path to plurality or majority highest at 57.5%, reflecting these regional dynamics six months before the October deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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