Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 57.5% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's general election by October 5, 2026, driven by projections like 338Canada's March 31 update showing PQ securing 63 seats (54-72 range) despite tied popular vote intentions around 29-33% with the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ). PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon benefits from strong francophone riding efficiency, while PLQ's recent surge to 28-33% under new leader Charles Milliard since February has narrowed the popular vote gap per the latest Léger poll (March 21: PQ 33%, PLQ 33%) but trails in seat math at 47 projected. CAQ languishes at 8% odds amid François Legault's January resignation and 8-9% support, with its leadership vote set for April 12 potentially offering a rebound. Minor parties like PCQ (13-15% vote) lack seat viability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日PQ 57%
PLQ 32%
CAQ 8%
PCQ <1%
$384,430 Vol.
$384,430 Vol.
2026/10/05
PQ
57%
PLQ
32%
CAQ
8%
PCQ
1%
QS
<1%
PVQ
<1%
PQ 57%
PLQ 32%
CAQ 8%
PCQ <1%
$384,430 Vol.
$384,430 Vol.
2026/10/05
PQ
$37,025 Vol.
57%
PLQ
$39,725 Vol.
32%
CAQ
$37,190 Vol.
8%
PCQ
$121,106 Vol.
1%
QS
$46,161 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$103,223 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 57.5% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's general election by October 5, 2026, driven by projections like 338Canada's March 31 update showing PQ securing 63 seats (54-72 range) despite tied popular vote intentions around 29-33% with the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ). PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon benefits from strong francophone riding efficiency, while PLQ's recent surge to 28-33% under new leader Charles Milliard since February has narrowed the popular vote gap per the latest Léger poll (March 21: PQ 33%, PLQ 33%) but trails in seat math at 47 projected. CAQ languishes at 8% odds amid François Legault's January resignation and 8-9% support, with its leadership vote set for April 12 potentially offering a rebound. Minor parties like PCQ (13-15% vote) lack seat viability.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
マーケット開始日： Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
音量
$384,430終了日
2026/10/05マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 57.5% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's general election by October 5, 2026, driven by projections like 338Canada's March 31 update showing PQ securing 63 seats (54-72 range) despite tied popular vote intentions around 29-33% with the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ). PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon benefits from strong francophone riding efficiency, while PLQ's recent surge to 28-33% under new leader Charles Milliard since February has narrowed the popular vote gap per the latest Léger poll (March 21: PQ 33%, PLQ 33%) but trails in seat math at 47 projected. CAQ languishes at 8% odds amid François Legault's January resignation and 8-9% support, with its leadership vote set for April 12 potentially offering a rebound. Minor parties like PCQ (13-15% vote) lack seat viability.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
音量
$384,430終了日
2026/10/05マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 57.5% implied probability to win the most seats in Quebec's general election by October 5, 2026, driven by projections like 338Canada's March 31 update showing PQ securing 63 seats (54-72 range) despite tied popular vote intentions around 29-33% with the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ). PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon benefits from strong francophone riding efficiency, while PLQ's recent surge to 28-33% under new leader Charles Milliard since February has narrowed the popular vote gap per the latest Léger poll (March 21: PQ 33%, PLQ 33%) but trails in seat math at 47 projected. CAQ languishes at 8% odds amid François Legault's January resignation and 8-9% support, with its leadership vote set for April 12 potentially offering a rebound. Minor parties like PCQ (13-15% vote) lack seat viability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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