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政治·トランプ

ピート・ヘグセスが3月31日までに国防長官に？

Market icon
政治·トランプ

ピート・ヘグセスが3月31日までに国防長官に？

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

はい

<1% chance
Polymarket

$274,755 Vol.

はい

<1% chance
Polymarket

$274,755 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be the US Secretary of Defense for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Pete Hegseth, confirmed as Secretary of Defense in a narrow 51-50 Senate vote on January 24, 2025—with Vice President Vance casting the tiebreaker—has held the position for over 14 months amid ongoing policy actions like military promotions and public statements on Iran threats. Trader consensus at 99.6% "No" reflects his entrenched role, with no verified reports of resignation, firing, or withdrawal plans as of late March 2026, despite recent backlash over his decision to remove four Army officers from a promotion list on March 27. With just three days until resolution, abrupt presidential dismissal, sudden health event, or late-breaking scandal would be required to shift outcomes, though historical cabinet turnover patterns show such moves are rare without prior signals.

Pete Hegseth, confirmed as Secretary of Defense in a narrow 51-50 Senate vote on January 24, 2025—with Vice President Vance casting the tiebreaker—has held the position for over 14 months amid ongoing policy actions like military promotions and public statements on Iran threats. Trader consensus at 99.6% "No" reflects his entrenched role, with no verified reports of resignation, firing, or withdrawal plans as of late March 2026, despite recent backlash over his decision to remove four Army officers from a promotion list on March 27. With just three days until resolution, abrupt presidential dismissal, sudden health event, or late-breaking scandal would be required to shift outcomes, though historical cabinet turnover patterns show such moves are rare without prior signals.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be the US Secretary of Defense for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Pete Hegseth, confirmed as Secretary of Defense in a narrow 51-50 Senate vote on January 24, 2025—with Vice President Vance casting the tiebreaker—has held the position for over 14 months amid ongoing policy actions like military promotions and public statements on Iran threats. Trader consensus at 99.6% "No" reflects his entrenched role, with no verified reports of resignation, firing, or withdrawal plans as of late March 2026, despite recent backlash over his decision to remove four Army officers from a promotion list on March 27. With just three days until resolution, abrupt presidential dismissal, sudden health event, or late-breaking scandal would be required to shift outcomes, though historical cabinet turnover patterns show such moves are rare without prior signals.

Pete Hegseth, confirmed as Secretary of Defense in a narrow 51-50 Senate vote on January 24, 2025—with Vice President Vance casting the tiebreaker—has held the position for over 14 months amid ongoing policy actions like military promotions and public statements on Iran threats. Trader consensus at 99.6% "No" reflects his entrenched role, with no verified reports of resignation, firing, or withdrawal plans as of late March 2026, despite recent backlash over his decision to remove four Army officers from a promotion list on March 27. With just three days until resolution, abrupt presidential dismissal, sudden health event, or late-breaking scandal would be required to shift outcomes, though historical cabinet turnover patterns show such moves are rare without prior signals.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「ピート・ヘグセスが3月31日までに国防長官に？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ピート・ヘグセスは3月31日までに国防長官を退任するのか？」で0%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、0¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に0%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ピート・ヘグセスが3月31日までに国防長官に？」は$274.8Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 1, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

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これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「ピート・ヘグセスが3月31日までに国防長官に？」の現在のリーダーは「ピート・ヘグセスは3月31日までに国防長官を退任するのか？」でわずか0%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

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