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地政学·トランプ

2026年にトランプ氏は何枚のゴールドカードを販売しますか？

Market icon
地政学·トランプ

2026年にトランプ氏は何枚のゴールドカードを販売しますか？

Dec 18, 2025

Dec 31

Dec 18, 2025

Dec 31

0 30%

1～100 20.3%

101〜1,000 9.6%

25,000〜100,000 9.3%

Polymarket

$118,544 Vol.

0 30%

1～100 20.3%

101〜1,000 9.6%

25,000〜100,000 9.3%

Polymarket

$118,544 Vol.

0

$23,853 Vol.

30%

1～100

$9,449 Vol.

20%

101〜1,000

$4,777 Vol.

10%

1,000～2,500

$7,225 Vol.

8%

2,500～5,000

$4,216 Vol.

8%

5千〜1万

$4,525 Vol.

7%

1万～2万5千枚

$51,594 Vol.

7%

25,000〜100,000

$4,096 Vol.

9%

>10万

$8,807 Vol.

5%

Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment. This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices zero Gold Cards sold in 2026 at 30% implied probability, reflecting stalled momentum in President Trump's executive order-launched immigration program requiring a $1 million contribution for expedited green card eligibility via USCIS Form I-140G. Recent federal lawsuits filed in early February challenging the program's legality, coupled with March reports of 70,000 waitlist expressions but no verified issuances amid low uptake from wealthy foreigners, have fueled skepticism despite 2025 pre-launch claims of $1.3 billion in sales. Low-volume bins like 1-100 at 19% differentiate on potential limited processing if courts allow; consolidation toward zero hinges on adverse rulings, while favorable decisions or streamlined adjudication could boost mid-range outcomes like 101-1k before year-end.

Trader consensus prices zero Gold Cards sold in 2026 at 30% implied probability, reflecting stalled momentum in President Trump's executive order-launched immigration program requiring a $1 million contribution for expedited green card eligibility via USCIS Form I-140G. Recent federal lawsuits filed in early February challenging the program's legality, coupled with March reports of 70,000 waitlist expressions but no verified issuances amid low uptake from wealthy foreigners, have fueled skepticism despite 2025 pre-launch claims of $1.3 billion in sales. Low-volume bins like 1-100 at 19% differentiate on potential limited processing if courts allow; consolidation toward zero hinges on adverse rulings, while favorable decisions or streamlined adjudication could boost mid-range outcomes like 101-1k before year-end.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment. This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices zero Gold Cards sold in 2026 at 30% implied probability, reflecting stalled momentum in President Trump's executive order-launched immigration program requiring a $1 million contribution for expedited green card eligibility via USCIS Form I-140G. Recent federal lawsuits filed in early February challenging the program's legality, coupled with March reports of 70,000 waitlist expressions but no verified issuances amid low uptake from wealthy foreigners, have fueled skepticism despite 2025 pre-launch claims of $1.3 billion in sales. Low-volume bins like 1-100 at 19% differentiate on potential limited processing if courts allow; consolidation toward zero hinges on adverse rulings, while favorable decisions or streamlined adjudication could boost mid-range outcomes like 101-1k before year-end.

Trader consensus prices zero Gold Cards sold in 2026 at 30% implied probability, reflecting stalled momentum in President Trump's executive order-launched immigration program requiring a $1 million contribution for expedited green card eligibility via USCIS Form I-140G. Recent federal lawsuits filed in early February challenging the program's legality, coupled with March reports of 70,000 waitlist expressions but no verified issuances amid low uptake from wealthy foreigners, have fueled skepticism despite 2025 pre-launch claims of $1.3 billion in sales. Low-volume bins like 1-100 at 19% differentiate on potential limited processing if courts allow; consolidation toward zero hinges on adverse rulings, while favorable decisions or streamlined adjudication could boost mid-range outcomes like 101-1k before year-end.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「2026年にトランプ氏は何枚のゴールドカードを販売しますか？」はPolymarket上の9個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「0」で30%、次いで「1～100」が20%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、30¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に30%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年にトランプ氏は何枚のゴールドカードを販売しますか？」は$118.5Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 5, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年にトランプ氏は何枚のゴールドカードを販売しますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている9個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年にトランプ氏は何枚のゴールドカードを販売しますか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「0」で30%であり、市場がこの結果に30%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「1～100」で20%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年にトランプ氏は何枚のゴールドカードを販売しますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。