Market icon

クロード5の発売日は... ?

Market icon

クロード5の発売日は... ?

2月28日までにリリースされない 100.0%

2月4日 <1%

2月5日 <1%

2月6日 <1%

Polymarket

$663,341 Vol.

2月28日までにリリースされない 100.0%

2月4日 <1%

2月5日 <1%

2月6日 <1%

Polymarket

$663,341 Vol.

2月4日

$11,377 Vol.

いいえ

2月5日

$47,434 Vol.

いいえ

2月6日

$25,296 Vol.

いいえ

2月7日

$14,572 Vol.

いいえ

2月8日

$18,455 Vol.

いいえ

2月9日

$21,650 Vol.

いいえ

2月10日

$19,319 Vol.

いいえ

2月11日

$21,798 Vol.

いいえ

2月12日

$15,664 Vol.

いいえ

2月13日

$20,611 Vol.

いいえ

2月14日

$32,066 Vol.

いいえ

2月15日

$16,314 Vol.

いいえ

2月16日

$20,253 Vol.

いいえ

2月17日

$48,299 Vol.

いいえ

2月18日

$19,163 Vol.

いいえ

2月19日

$34,677 Vol.

いいえ

2月20日

$22,883 Vol.

いいえ

2月21日

$12,269 Vol.

いいえ

2月22日

$16,466 Vol.

いいえ

2月23日

$14,224 Vol.

いいえ

2月24日

$27,613 Vol.

いいえ

2月25日

$14,684 Vol.

いいえ

2月26日

$16,700 Vol.

いいえ

2月27日

$16,963 Vol.

いいえ

2月28日

$19,575 Vol.

いいえ

2月28日までにリリースされない

$115,017 Vol.

はい

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) when Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public.

This market will resolve to "No release by February 28" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is not made available to the general public by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To qualify, Anthropic's Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g., Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$663,341
終了日
Feb 28, 2026
マーケット開始日
Feb 4, 2026, 5:01 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) when Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public. This market will resolve to "No release by February 28" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is not made available to the general public by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To qualify, Anthropic's Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g., Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

提案された結果: いいえ

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: いいえ

外部リンクに注意してください。

Frequently Asked Questions

"クロード5の発売日は... ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 26 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2月28日までにリリースされない" at 100%, followed by "2月4日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "クロード5の発売日は... ?" has generated $663.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "クロード5の発売日は... ?," browse the 26 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "クロード5の発売日は... ?" is "2月28日までにリリースされない" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2月4日" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "クロード5の発売日は... ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.