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Politics·Zohran Mamdani

Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?

Market icon
Politics·Zohran Mamdani

Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?

8% chance
Polymarket
NEW
8% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zohran Mamdani ceases to be the mayor of New York City for any period of time between taking office and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Zohran Mamdani does not take office as the 111th Mayor of New York City, succeeding Eric Adams, as currently scheduled for January 1, 2026, by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes.” An announcement of Zohran Mamdani's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Zohran Mamdani, his representatives, or the Office of the Mayor of New York City; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Zohran Mamdani, a New York State Assemblymember from Queens, shows no serious path to becoming NYC mayor before 2027, driving the 92.5% "No" trader consensus. He has not announced a candidacy for the 2025 mayoral election, where primaries are set for June 24, amid a crowded Democratic field including City Comptroller Brad Lander and potential entrants like former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams' federal corruption indictment on September 26—followed by his not-guilty plea—has disrupted the race but failed to boost Mamdani, a democratic socialist focused on his own Assembly re-election on November 5. Even if victorious, early exit within a year via resignation, impeachment, or recall remains improbable given historical precedents for new mayors. Traders price in these structural barriers and lack of momentum.

Zohran Mamdani, a New York State Assemblymember from Queens, shows no serious path to becoming NYC mayor before 2027, driving the 92.5% "No" trader consensus. He has not announced a candidacy for the 2025 mayoral election, where primaries are set for June 24, amid a crowded Democratic field including City Comptroller Brad Lander and potential entrants like former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams' federal corruption indictment on September 26—followed by his not-guilty plea—has disrupted the race but failed to boost Mamdani, a democratic socialist focused on his own Assembly re-election on November 5. Even if victorious, early exit within a year via resignation, impeachment, or recall remains improbable given historical precedents for new mayors. Traders price in these structural barriers and lack of momentum.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zohran Mamdani ceases to be the mayor of New York City for any period of time between taking office and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Zohran Mamdani does not take office as the 111th Mayor of New York City, succeeding Eric Adams, as currently scheduled for January 1, 2026, by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes.” An announcement of Zohran Mamdani's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Zohran Mamdani, his representatives, or the Office of the Mayor of New York City; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Zohran Mamdani, a New York State Assemblymember from Queens, shows no serious path to becoming NYC mayor before 2027, driving the 92.5% "No" trader consensus. He has not announced a candidacy for the 2025 mayoral election, where primaries are set for June 24, amid a crowded Democratic field including City Comptroller Brad Lander and potential entrants like former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams' federal corruption indictment on September 26—followed by his not-guilty plea—has disrupted the race but failed to boost Mamdani, a democratic socialist focused on his own Assembly re-election on November 5. Even if victorious, early exit within a year via resignation, impeachment, or recall remains improbable given historical precedents for new mayors. Traders price in these structural barriers and lack of momentum.

Zohran Mamdani, a New York State Assemblymember from Queens, shows no serious path to becoming NYC mayor before 2027, driving the 92.5% "No" trader consensus. He has not announced a candidacy for the 2025 mayoral election, where primaries are set for June 24, amid a crowded Democratic field including City Comptroller Brad Lander and potential entrants like former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams' federal corruption indictment on September 26—followed by his not-guilty plea—has disrupted the race but failed to boost Mamdani, a democratic socialist focused on his own Assembly re-election on November 5. Even if victorious, early exit within a year via resignation, impeachment, or recall remains improbable given historical precedents for new mayors. Traders price in these structural barriers and lack of momentum.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 8% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 8¢, the market collectively assigns a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 5, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?" is 8% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.