Trader consensus gives a 53.5% implied probability to New York State Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani achieving a freeze on NYC rent-stabilized apartments before 2027, underscoring a competitive balance between rising tenant activism and structural hurdles in housing policy. The Rent Guidelines Board's July approval of a 2.75% increase for one-year leases—despite protests led by Mamdani and progressive allies—intensified calls for stronger tenant protections amid the city's affordable housing shortage. Mamdani's Democratic Socialists of America-backed pushes for "good cause eviction" legislation have advanced in the Assembly but face resistance from Governor Hochul and fiscal moderates. The 2025 NYC mayoral election looms as a pivotal factor: a progressive victor replacing low-approval Mayor Adams could appoint a rent-freeze-friendly RGB chair, tipping toward Yes, while economic recovery or legislative compromises might favor No.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$238,585 Vol.
$238,585 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$238,585 Vol.
$238,585 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Rent Guidelines Board implements rent adjustments at 0.0 % for both one-year and two-year renewal leases for rent-stabilized apartments citywide by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered implemented only if a 0.0 % increases for both one-year and two-year renewal leases is in effect by the resolution date. An announced intention or proposed order not yet effective will not qualify. Orders that are blocked, enjoined, or otherwise prevented from taking effect by the deadline will not qualify.
If the policy is enacted through another official mechanism, including but not limited to a mayoral executive order, local legislation, or state law, and goes into effect by the resolution date it will qualify.
Orders that apply only to one lease term (e.g., 0 % on one-year but > 0 % on two-year), apply only to specific unit types (e.g., hotels or SROs), or relate to non-stabilized units will not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions — such as exclusions for specific categories of rent-stabilized units (e.g., hardship exemptions, temporarily exempt buildings, or administrative carveouts) — will still qualify as long as a general policy of 0 % rent adjustment for both one-year and two-year renewal leases on rent-stabilized apartments and lofts is in effect citywide.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will immediately resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official Rent Guidelines Board materials.Trader consensus gives a 53.5% implied probability to New York State Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani achieving a freeze on NYC rent-stabilized apartments before 2027, underscoring a competitive balance between rising tenant activism and structural hurdles in housing policy. The Rent Guidelines Board's July approval of a 2.75% increase for one-year leases—despite protests led by Mamdani and progressive allies—intensified calls for stronger tenant protections amid the city's affordable housing shortage. Mamdani's Democratic Socialists of America-backed pushes for "good cause eviction" legislation have advanced in the Assembly but face resistance from Governor Hochul and fiscal moderates. The 2025 NYC mayoral election looms as a pivotal factor: a progressive victor replacing low-approval Mayor Adams could appoint a rent-freeze-friendly RGB chair, tipping toward Yes, while economic recovery or legislative compromises might favor No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Rent Guidelines Board implements rent adjustments at 0.0 % for both one-year and two-year renewal leases for rent-stabilized apartments citywide by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered implemented only if a 0.0 % increases for both one-year and two-year renewal leases is in effect by the resolution date. An announced intention or proposed order not yet effective will not qualify. Orders that are blocked, enjoined, or otherwise prevented from taking effect by the deadline will not qualify.
If the policy is enacted through another official mechanism, including but not limited to a mayoral executive order, local legislation, or state law, and goes into effect by the resolution date it will qualify.
Orders that apply only to one lease term (e.g., 0 % on one-year but > 0 % on two-year), apply only to specific unit types (e.g., hotels or SROs), or relate to non-stabilized units will not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions — such as exclusions for specific categories of rent-stabilized units (e.g., hardship exemptions, temporarily exempt buildings, or administrative carveouts) — will still qualify as long as a general policy of 0 % rent adjustment for both one-year and two-year renewal leases on rent-stabilized apartments and lofts is in effect citywide.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will immediately resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official Rent Guidelines Board materials.
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Rent Guidelines Board implements rent adjustments at 0.0 % for both one-year and two-year renewal leases for rent-stabilized apartments citywide by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered implemented only if a 0.0 % increases for both one-year and two-year renewal leases is in effect by the resolution date. An announced intention or proposed order not yet effective will not qualify. Orders that are blocked, enjoined, or otherwise prevented from taking effect by the deadline will not qualify.
If the policy is enacted through another official mechanism, including but not limited to a mayoral executive order, local legislation, or state law, and goes into effect by the resolution date it will qualify.
Orders that apply only to one lease term (e.g., 0 % on one-year but > 0 % on two-year), apply only to specific unit types (e.g., hotels or SROs), or relate to non-stabilized units will not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions — such as exclusions for specific categories of rent-stabilized units (e.g., hardship exemptions, temporarily exempt buildings, or administrative carveouts) — will still qualify as long as a general policy of 0 % rent adjustment for both one-year and two-year renewal leases on rent-stabilized apartments and lofts is in effect citywide.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will immediately resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official Rent Guidelines Board materials.
Market Opened: Nov 3, 2025, 9:21 PM ET
Volume
$238,585End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Rent Guidelines Board implements rent adjustments at 0.0 % for both one-year and two-year renewal leases for rent-stabilized apartments citywide by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered implemented only if a 0.0 % increases for both one-year and two-year renewal leases is in effect by the resolution date. An announced intention or proposed order not yet effective will not qualify. Orders that are blocked, enjoined, or otherwise prevented from taking effect by the deadline will not qualify.
If the policy is enacted through another official mechanism, including but not limited to a mayoral executive order, local legislation, or state law, and goes into effect by the resolution date it will qualify.
Orders that apply only to one lease term (e.g., 0 % on one-year but > 0 % on two-year), apply only to specific unit types (e.g., hotels or SROs), or relate to non-stabilized units will not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions — such as exclusions for specific categories of rent-stabilized units (e.g., hardship exemptions, temporarily exempt buildings, or administrative carveouts) — will still qualify as long as a general policy of 0 % rent adjustment for both one-year and two-year renewal leases on rent-stabilized apartments and lofts is in effect citywide.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will immediately resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official Rent Guidelines Board materials.Trader consensus gives a 53.5% implied probability to New York State Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani achieving a freeze on NYC rent-stabilized apartments before 2027, underscoring a competitive balance between rising tenant activism and structural hurdles in housing policy. The Rent Guidelines Board's July approval of a 2.75% increase for one-year leases—despite protests led by Mamdani and progressive allies—intensified calls for stronger tenant protections amid the city's affordable housing shortage. Mamdani's Democratic Socialists of America-backed pushes for "good cause eviction" legislation have advanced in the Assembly but face resistance from Governor Hochul and fiscal moderates. The 2025 NYC mayoral election looms as a pivotal factor: a progressive victor replacing low-approval Mayor Adams could appoint a rent-freeze-friendly RGB chair, tipping toward Yes, while economic recovery or legislative compromises might favor No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Rent Guidelines Board implements rent adjustments at 0.0 % for both one-year and two-year renewal leases for rent-stabilized apartments citywide by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered implemented only if a 0.0 % increases for both one-year and two-year renewal leases is in effect by the resolution date. An announced intention or proposed order not yet effective will not qualify. Orders that are blocked, enjoined, or otherwise prevented from taking effect by the deadline will not qualify.
If the policy is enacted through another official mechanism, including but not limited to a mayoral executive order, local legislation, or state law, and goes into effect by the resolution date it will qualify.
Orders that apply only to one lease term (e.g., 0 % on one-year but > 0 % on two-year), apply only to specific unit types (e.g., hotels or SROs), or relate to non-stabilized units will not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions — such as exclusions for specific categories of rent-stabilized units (e.g., hardship exemptions, temporarily exempt buildings, or administrative carveouts) — will still qualify as long as a general policy of 0 % rent adjustment for both one-year and two-year renewal leases on rent-stabilized apartments and lofts is in effect citywide.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will immediately resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official Rent Guidelines Board materials.
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Rent Guidelines Board implements rent adjustments at 0.0 % for both one-year and two-year renewal leases for rent-stabilized apartments citywide by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered implemented only if a 0.0 % increases for both one-year and two-year renewal leases is in effect by the resolution date. An announced intention or proposed order not yet effective will not qualify. Orders that are blocked, enjoined, or otherwise prevented from taking effect by the deadline will not qualify.
If the policy is enacted through another official mechanism, including but not limited to a mayoral executive order, local legislation, or state law, and goes into effect by the resolution date it will qualify.
Orders that apply only to one lease term (e.g., 0 % on one-year but > 0 % on two-year), apply only to specific unit types (e.g., hotels or SROs), or relate to non-stabilized units will not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions — such as exclusions for specific categories of rent-stabilized units (e.g., hardship exemptions, temporarily exempt buildings, or administrative carveouts) — will still qualify as long as a general policy of 0 % rent adjustment for both one-year and two-year renewal leases on rent-stabilized apartments and lofts is in effect citywide.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will immediately resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official Rent Guidelines Board materials.
Volume
$238,585End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus gives a 53.5% implied probability to New York State Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani achieving a freeze on NYC rent-stabilized apartments before 2027, underscoring a competitive balance between rising tenant activism and structural hurdles in housing policy. The Rent Guidelines Board's July approval of a 2.75% increase for one-year leases—despite protests led by Mamdani and progressive allies—intensified calls for stronger tenant protections amid the city's affordable housing shortage. Mamdani's Democratic Socialists of America-backed pushes for "good cause eviction" legislation have advanced in the Assembly but face resistance from Governor Hochul and fiscal moderates. The 2025 NYC mayoral election looms as a pivotal factor: a progressive victor replacing low-approval Mayor Adams could appoint a rent-freeze-friendly RGB chair, tipping toward Yes, while economic recovery or legislative compromises might favor No.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions