Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani's July 2024 introduction of bill A.10500, proposing gradual New York minimum wage increases to $30 by 2030, drives the 82% "No" odds, as the plan reaches only about $21 by end-2026 under its schedule. Lacking significant cosponsors or committee advancement amid the session's close, the measure faces hurdles from Governor Hochul's fiscal restraint, moderate Democratic leadership in Albany, and business group opposition citing inflation risks. Recent state budget maintained current wages at $15-$16 hourly with no aggressive hikes, reinforcing trader consensus that full $30 attainment before 2027 remains improbable despite progressive advocacy. Next year's legislative session offers potential review, but historical base rates on bold wage bills suggest low passage odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030. You can read more about that here: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030. You can read more about that here: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030. You can read more about that here: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 5:15 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030. You can read more about that here: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030. You can read more about that here: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030. You can read more about that here: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date.
Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for restaurant workers, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general policy of a $30 per hour minimum wage in New York City by 2030 is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani's July 2024 introduction of bill A.10500, proposing gradual New York minimum wage increases to $30 by 2030, drives the 82% "No" odds, as the plan reaches only about $21 by end-2026 under its schedule. Lacking significant cosponsors or committee advancement amid the session's close, the measure faces hurdles from Governor Hochul's fiscal restraint, moderate Democratic leadership in Albany, and business group opposition citing inflation risks. Recent state budget maintained current wages at $15-$16 hourly with no aggressive hikes, reinforcing trader consensus that full $30 attainment before 2027 remains improbable despite progressive advocacy. Next year's legislative session offers potential review, but historical base rates on bold wage bills suggest low passage odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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