Name: Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?
Start: 2025-01-05T18:49:45.139105Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. national debt surpasses 38 trillion dollars at any point before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. 


Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?

The U.S. national debt is nearing $37 trillion, with interest payments surpassing the Defense Department budget, raising alarms about potential bankruptcy. A controversial bill, dubbed Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill,' is projected to add trillions more to the debt, sparking public disputes among key figures like Elon Musk, who criticizes the unchecked spending.

National Debt Crisis

“That I think was the real wakeup call for me was seeing that the interest payments on the National Debt exceeded the Defense Department budget.. I just don't want America to go bankrupt”

 https://t.co/mkpyjUTxHf

If you voted for Obama twice, then Joe Biden  - if you wanna know why the national debt is $35 trillion, just look in the mirror.

🚨 BREAKING: U.S. inches toward $37 trillion national debt. https://t.co/CTcbKwSbeC

I've realized today that many republican voters don't actually care about the national debt.

It seems like they are siding with Trump because they don't think Elon could possibly be this upset about a spending bill.

I promise that if you really understood how your lives will be

What happens to the national debt if Democrats win in 2028 and reopen the borders?

Mike Johnson: We're gonna get the US economy back on sound footing. We're the party of fiscal responsibility and you're gonna see that demonstrated day after day.

They just passed a bill adding $3T to the national debt. https://t.co/lYqhXVckk1

"The dollar will be worth nothing if the US doesn't do something about its national debt."

一 Elon Musk https://t.co/bIY302SmFb

Elon threw everything behind Trump's re-election. 

He put running some the largest companies on earth aside to help reduce the national debt. 

Trump responded the way he always does: by betraying and badmouthing him.

Trump may have finally found the wrong person to mess with. https://t.co/VC9McA88hi

Ron Paul never voted to raise the debt ceiling.

In 2011, when the national debt was $14 trillion (it’s now $36 trillion), he warned about the future of the dollar and suggested we should cut spending and stop being the policeman of the world instead of raising the debt limit https://t.co/pdZOxurBjW

Some simple budget math: Give out $4 trillion in tax cuts and cut spending by $1 trillion, and you'll get a $3 trillion increase in the national debt. Denying these realities doesn't change them (and yes, the bond market has noticed). https://t.co/QVoW1FstQW

TLDR: Trump's mad at Elon Musk for recognizing his "big ugly bill" will balloon our national debt.

Elon Musk is mad Trump’s bill doesn’t gut the government even further.

Meanwhile, the American people are rightfully mad Trump's bill gives billionaires like Musk &amp; Trump massive https://t.co/7HWN1xjtR9

The Libertarian Party is the SOLE political entity that is steadfastly dedicated to eliminating the national debt, and reigning in the size and scope of government.

You may not agree with us on every part of our platform - but we have a track history of being proven correct, and

Elon Musk: "That I think was the real wakeup call for me was seeing that the interest payments on the National Debt exceeded the Defense Department budget.. I just don't want America to go bankrupt" https://t.co/QMLZKqiFC5

America is on the verge of $37 trillion national debt. https://t.co/kocvoFclkf

I understand @elonmusk frustration and consternation about the Big Beautiful Bill.
Homicidal Democrats threatened his life repeatedly for the last half a year and he worked for months, unpaid and Patriotically to make a significant dent in the ominously threatening national debt https://t.co/GoH9ZXsuji

🇺🇸 BIG BILL, BIGGER LIES... AND ELON ISN'T BUYING IT

Congress passed a bill so reckless, it makes buying a Lambo on a credit card look responsible. 

Elon called it out: this tax plan jacks up the national debt by up to $5 trillion, all while pretending it's cutting costs. https://t.co/ctEBhvt123 https://t.co/ZGRwCDGoAE

FLASHBACK: “96% of voters, including 97% of Trump supporters, 95% of Harris backers and 95% of the few undecideds left, are worried about a national debt that averages out to more than $105,000 per American citizen, with interest alone boosting that burden by roughly $7,000 year https://t.co/LibTABEM8r

🇺🇸 ELON: AMERICA IS ON A PATH TO BANKRUPTCY

“Government spending is bankrupting the country. 

Our interest payments on the national debt now exceed the Defense Department budget. 

The Defense Department budget is like a trillion dollars a year. 

Interest payments on national https://t.co/6LXCTp8bc6 https://t.co/r43v5PxRrn

🚨🇺🇸 SCOTT JENNINGS: ELON IS NOT WRONG ABOUT THE DEBT

"Trump's agenda is in the bill and he wants to pass it... that's his point. 

Musk is not wrong about the national debt, and he deeply cares about this. 

Their goals aren't mutually exclusive. 

I still love them both, and https://t.co/PlFoaudnmb https://t.co/2tsXTszoor

ELON: IF WE DON’T ADDRESS THE DEFICIT, AMERICA’S GOING BANKRUPT

“We've got a $2 trillion deficit. 

If we don't do something about this deficit, the country's going bankrupt.

It's really astounding that the interest payments alone on the national debt exceed the Defense https://t.co/7rKyTi9kks https://t.co/Ec9AbumWMn

🇺🇸 JUST IN: The U.S. national debt is on track to hit $37 trillion in the coming days. https://t.co/nm3bMyCbfo

Congress is to blame for America’s current financial crisis due to decades of fiscal mismanagement and unchecked spending. They’re solely responsible for approving bloated budgets and accumulating $36 trillion in national debt. I think we should fire them all and start over.

The jobs report was bad, elon trashing the budget bill, CBO said his budget bill would add $2.4 trillion to the national debt and kick 11 million Americans off health care so trump announced a travel ban.

To My Fellow MPs, and every institution entrusted with Kenya’s future — 
#ElonMusk and #DonaldTrump very close allies are now clashing publicly over a U.S. debt bill that adds $2.4 trillion to the national burden — a bill Musk called a “disgusting abomination.” 

This proves a

The Republican tax cut and spending bill could add trillions to the already massive national debt. We take a look at how the country arrived at such a precarious financial position. https://t.co/BWpdxntdpA

Lisa Desjardins breaks down what President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” and the national debt. https://t.co/nmnFpmg31M

There’s nothing beautiful about a bill that kicks 16 MILLION Americans off their health care insurance, takes away food assistance from 3 MILLION hungry families, and adds $2.4 TRILLION to the national debt. https://t.co/6X9eVLwVcT

"The dollar will be worth nothing if the US doesn't do something about its national debt."

一 Elon Musk

Purchasing Power of the American Dollar:

1913: $1 = 30 Hershey Bars
1944: $1 = 20 Coca Cola Bottles
2020: $1 = 1 Mcdonald's Coffee

A dollar doesn't go as far as it used to. https://t.co/KIFgTFb6uB

Trump is adding trillions to the national debt with his expensive "Big Beautiful Bill"

Elon wants to cut waste.

Team Elon on this subject!

The US national debt is projected to surge past $38 trillion this year — as debt interest payments surpass military budget.

83% chance.

The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, equating to over $100,000 per American, with annual interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion. Calls to defund organizations like USAID and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting are gaining traction among some politicians as a response to the escalating fiscal crisis.

How is this even up for debate when we're $37 TRILLION IN DEBT? Defunding the Leftist USAID and Corporation for Public Broadcasting is a NO BRAINER. Let's get it done, Senators. https://t.co/tvE7TCVfCR

We have a $2 trillion annual budget deficit.

We are spending over $1.2 trillion per year in interest payments on the $37 trillion debt.

About 25% of all US govt revenue goes to paying interest on the national debt. https://t.co/ZHAwjQAIFS

The national debt recently crossed $37 trillion.

This amounts to over $100k per American.

The lack of political incentive to be fiscally responsible is a huge problem. https://t.co/IlPJPWfnQm

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes"  if the value of costumes duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) is greater than $250b. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data  for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.


Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between February 24 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).


Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% in 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDT marketcap is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for USDT, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the budget is balanced for the 2025 fiscal year, i.e. if revenue minus spending is 0 or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the Federal Surplus/Deficit published by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) here https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD. 

 This market will resolve according to the first data release from the OMB - any further updates won't be considered.


Will DOGE balance the budget in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of XRP in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating XRP does not count as holding XRP reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national XRP reserve in 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession by end of 2026?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).


Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate the federal tax exemption on interest from municipal bonds by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the exemption is eliminated only for specific types or classes of municipal bonds (e.g., only newly issued bonds, only bonds from certain states or localities, or only bonds purchased after a certain date), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump remove municipal bond tax exemption in 2025?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 see (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 10% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,396,126,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/)

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.

Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the maximum individual tax rate below 37% at any point between January 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.



Will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025?

On September 1, 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration may declare a national housing emergency this fall to address high housing costs.(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bessent-says-trump-administration-will-tackle-high-housing-costs-with-new-2025-09-01/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) primarily addressing housing by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Will Trump announce a national housing emergency in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Dogecoin in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Dogecoin does not count as holding Dogecoin reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America enters a state of civil war by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming the US is in a civil war.

Note: Media reports that use the phrase "civil war" metaphorically will not count. Only a wide consensus of reporting that the US has entered a literal civil war will qualify.

US civil war in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally acquires any part of Canadian territory by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

Acquisition must be through official government action, such as annexation, treaty, or legislation.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. government however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.



Will the U.S. acquire Canadian territory in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Internal Revenue Department ceases operations entirely by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the IRS is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Internal Revenue Service it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, definitive evidence is made public confirming that the US government orchestrated or was directly involved in the September 11, 2001 attacks. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be publicly released information from the U.S. government.


Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?

Market Context

Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?

Rules

Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?

Market Context

Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?

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