Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?
$236,266 Vol.
Apr 30, 2025
Rules
Additional context
Updated Feb 3
If, prior to a tariff's implementation, the date in which it goes into effect is pushed back to a specified date, it will not count as that tariff's removal. An indefinite delay/suspension of a tariff's implementation before it has gone into effect, or any suspension (regardless of whether it is temporary) after a tariff has gone into effect, will qualify as a removal.
On February 1, Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which removes the 25% general tariff on Canada by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which remove the general 25% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. However, lowering the general tariff below 25% without removing it will not qualify.
Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which removes the 25% general tariff on Canada by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which remove the general 25% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. However, lowering the general tariff below 25% without removing it will not qualify.
Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$236,266
End Date
Apr 30, 2025
Resolver
0x6A9D222616...Comments (97)
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88381237
5d ago
According to the rules, it's clear. Am I the only one who thinks this is free money? ha ha
empirebuilding
7d ago
The problem here is that this market is not very efficient. Massive slippage resulting from just a small order here. Not enough buyers on either side to properly reflect realtime sentiment.
Orcishroler
7d ago
Romving tariffs on USMCA products should, in my opinion, be considered general tariffs, and this market should resolve to yes.
Orcishroler
7d ago
If it's going to be this complicated to decide outcomes, polymarket needs to make rules much more precise and measurable to leave less room for interpretation and ambiguity.
Jinmao
7d ago
Agreed. At the very least we should start seeing UMA returning P3 50/50 more often, against ambiguous undecideable crap
Orcishroler
7d ago
USMCA covers 99% of goods between Canada and us. This should be yes already, and this shows how broken Polymarket is. We need official arbitrators; we can't keep letting the community decide. The truth shouldn’t be a democratic process
0x1Df6459eC296Ba...
21h ago
Not even close. It's more like 50%
acceptabledinosa...
8d ago
I'm a little stumped on this one. Tariffs went into effect Tuesday and per the clarification "any suspension (regardless of whether it is temporary) after a tariff has gone into effect, will qualify as a removal." and "Actions which remove the general 25% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies."
Orcishroler
8d ago
Someone should propose yes. Read the last portion of the additional context. Tariffs are suspended
mombil
8d ago
the market price at almost 50 50 tells you this is not enough to resolve for yes. Why dont you go ahead and donate half of your $750 to the disputer?
Euan
8d ago
damn why couldn’t you guys trust me and buy my shares that I tried to pump :/
Euan
8d ago
https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1897736423001768048?s=46 “ White House Official: US pauses until April 2nd tariffs on Canada and Mexico USMCA trade.” read the additional context. “ any suspension (regardless of whether it is temporary) after a tariff has gone into effect, will qualify as a removal.”
Orcishroler
8d ago
GG for Yes
Diplomatico
8d ago
Canadian and Mexican goods might only face reciprocal tariffs on April 2 if the two countries make progress on fighting fentanyl, Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested to CNBC.
DGods
8d ago
Trump said the reciprocal tarifs would be added on top of to the current tarrifs
Toncar16
9d ago
“one-month delay for automakers“ it's still a no, He has just confirmed that there will be no cuts.
Doggerlander
9d ago
Looks like option on the table is tariffs won't apply to majority of goods (USMCA rules of origin
88381237
9d ago
If the announcement on March 5th is only a reduction or partial exemption of tariffs, rather than a complete cancellation of the universal 25% tariff, then the current action does not meet the market's "yes" condition and the market should be judged as "no". Further observation is needed to determine whether the subsequent official documents clearly state the "removal" rather than "adjustment" of tariffs.
DGods
10d ago
Trump's big ego is definitely not going to walk back on his tariffs before a long time.
Doggerlander
10d ago
Imo, Meeting in the middle refers to a 'compromise' not a 12.5% general tariff. My guess is tariffs werw remain on items like steel aluminum lumber
Roeman
10d ago
According to you
E.T
10d ago
yes please make a market for this!
ihatemyself
10d ago
"Actions which remove the general 25% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. " What if it's the other way around, and there are specific products exempted from the general tariff? Unclear.
wyn
10d ago
Will resolve as no. As the general tariff will likely just be lowered …
RowdyTellezMVP
10d ago
If there are significant exclusions like automobiles or energy which combine for 50% of US imports from Canada it is no longer a “general tariff”
wyn
10d ago
Not a pause, but some compromising. USA will likely lower the tariff to 10 percent… and it will stay on for months…
wyn
10d ago
Rolling back isn’t removing …
88381237
10d ago
According to reports from the White House and multiple media outlets, US President Trump announced on March 3 that a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods (with a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products) would officially take effect at 00:00 Eastern Time on March 4.
Euan
10d ago
Tf
RowdyTellezMVP
11d ago
We now have 2 full months to get any products removed. A couple key industries will collapse quickly and reciprocal tariffs will create another opportunity to get products removed.
RowdyTellezMVP
11d ago
I think full 25% is the second best outcome. Obviously this could have been resolved today, but better than another delay or a general tariff at a lower % IMO.
RowdyTellezMVP
11d ago
The auto and chip news today seems good. Perhaps they agreed to do this in exchange for removing tariffs on their products.
RowdyTellezMVP
11d ago
Lutnick said on CNN that Trump will decide this afternoon but that there will be tariffs tomorrow. Sounds like they are deciding on a general tariff or targeted products.
2INFINITYandBEYO...
11d ago
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/amendment-to-duties-to-address-the-flow-of-illicit-drugs-across-our-northern-border/
2INFINITYandBEYO...
11d ago
how I read it...they paused it until the Sec of Commerce has his ducks in a row and they're ready to proceed, that's his call anytime.
RowdyTellezMVP
11d ago
The update is to pause on de mimis eligible items. It just means items under $800 won’t be tariffed right away.
RowdyTellezMVP
12d ago
Lutnick interview super bullish. Sounds like they may opt for tariffs on specific products instead of a general tariff.
RowdyTellezMVP
13d ago
Interested to see what happens if the auto or energy industries get an exemption. The wording “ even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies” makes me think this market will resolve to yes.
RowdyTellezMVP
13d ago
A few weeks of tariffs and Canada will cave on some combination of pipelines and China policy. The bait and switch only works so many times so they need to follow through and it makes the most sense during Canada’s leadership change.
RowdyTellezMVP
14d ago
Trump insulted PP and Freeland but not Carney today. The deadline is March 4th because Trump knows he will have much more power negotiating with Trudeau who already has one foot out the door than Carney who will want to position himself as a tough negotiator for the election.
wyn
15d ago
“Tariffs are on time, on schedule” - President Trump
RowdyTellezMVP
14d ago
Great news for yes. More time for them to get removed.
RowdyTellezMVP
15d ago
It’s become clear the Canadian election is going to be a battle of “who will let Trump walk over them the least”. The LPC will be willing to make infinitely more concessions with Trudeau still in power. Trump knows this so wants to negotiate now and will remove the tariffs once he can claim they were responsible for saving Canada from Trudeau.
RowdyTellezMVP
15d ago
Carney is taking over at the end of March. He will do anything to get these removed ahead of the Canadian federal election.
RowdyTellezMVP
15d ago
This way Trump gets his psychological win sticking it to Justin and everybody is happy. Leaving tariffs in place to try and get PP elected as an ally is not going to work and Trump should realize that by now.
RowdyTellezMVP
15d ago
Based on the other market this is setting the odds of removal at 39% if they do go into effect next week. Seems off when this was trading above 60% in a similar scenario in February.
RowdyTellezMVP
15d ago
If they actually do switch back to March 4th these are totally getting removed before May
maktouch
18d ago
33xiang
24d ago
no
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