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Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday?

icon for Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday?

Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$43,865 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$43,865 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas personnel enter Israeli territory from Gaza for combat operations between March 17, and March 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Entering Israeli territory" is defined as any instance where Hamas personnel are physically present on the ground in Israeli territory after crossing from Gaza. Incursions which are solely maritime or air-based will not count. Entering buffer zones within Gaza controlled by Israel will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas personnel enter Israeli territory from Gaza for combat operations between March 17, and March 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Entering Israeli territory" is defined as any instance where Hamas personnel are physically present on the ground in Israeli territory after crossing from Gaza. Incursions which are solely maritime or air-based will not count.

Entering buffer zones within Gaza controlled by Israel will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$43,865
End Date
Mar 21, 2025
Market Opened
Mar 17, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas personnel enter Israeli territory from Gaza for combat operations between March 17, and March 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Entering Israeli territory" is defined as any instance where Hamas personnel are physically present on the ground in Israeli territory after crossing from Gaza. Incursions which are solely maritime or air-based will not count. Entering buffer zones within Gaza controlled by Israel will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas personnel enter Israeli territory from Gaza for combat operations between March 17, and March 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Entering Israeli territory" is defined as any instance where Hamas personnel are physically present on the ground in Israeli territory after crossing from Gaza. Incursions which are solely maritime or air-based will not count. Entering buffer zones within Gaza controlled by Israel will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas personnel enter Israeli territory from Gaza for combat operations between March 17, and March 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Entering Israeli territory" is defined as any instance where Hamas personnel are physically present on the ground in Israeli territory after crossing from Gaza. Incursions which are solely maritime or air-based will not count.

Entering buffer zones within Gaza controlled by Israel will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$43,865
End Date
Mar 21, 2025
Market Opened
Mar 17, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas personnel enter Israeli territory from Gaza for combat operations between March 17, and March 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Entering Israeli territory" is defined as any instance where Hamas personnel are physically present on the ground in Israeli territory after crossing from Gaza. Incursions which are solely maritime or air-based will not count. Entering buffer zones within Gaza controlled by Israel will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday?" has generated $43.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.