Name: Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?
Start: 2025-06-09T18:24:22.321011Z
End: 2025-06-30T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 


Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?

Donald Trump is actively discussing invoking the Insurrection Act with close advisors to address nationwide protests, while deploying 700 Marines to Los Angeles in a support role without officially invoking the Act. This move, alongside potential federal crackdowns, has sparked debates over constitutionality and fears of overreach or martial law.

Trump Considers Insurrection Act

CNN Guest Stuns Host and Viewers

YES, Trump can invoke the Insurrection Act.

Former DHS official Ken Cuccinelli came in with a tough dose of reality when Brianna Keilar asked, “Do you think that President Trump should invoke the Insurrection Act because of the unrest in https://t.co/prMPRC3iCH

BREAKING: My sources tell me Donald Trump is actively discussing invoking the Insurrection Act with his closest loyalists inside his inner circle. As protests flare nationwide — not just in L.A. — he’s urging allies in his cabinet to begin preparing for a federal crackdown. Stay

THE CONSTITUTION AND THE LAW

Yes, POTUS can use the National Guard in L.A.

Yes, POTUS can use the Insurrection Act.

Yes, POTUS can federally prosecute any and all individuals who interfere with or assault federal officers, including ICE agents, FBI agents, etc.

Yes, POTUS can

“Since you’re not planning to invoke that insurrection act, do you still plan to send troops?”

“Well, we’re gonna have troops everywhere.” - DJT

Firstly, operators never divulge.

Secondly, troops EVERYWHERE⁉️🐸 https://t.co/tPDrRu5DcU

President @RealDonaldTrump should proceed to invocation of the Insurrection Act. https://t.co/flYhMwRwWm

🚨BREAKING - It's official. Donald Trump is mobilizing 700 active duty Marines from Twentynine Palms to Los Angeles on a temporary basis until more National Guard troops arrive. The marines are expected to only be in a support role, not as an invocation of the Insurrection Act https://t.co/o3KjbW8F8N

The Marines ought to refuse this deployment unless and until it is made a legal order by Trump invoking the Insurrection Act or declaring martial law.

Until then, I have no idea how any Marine is under the Code deeming this a legal order.

Can any military lawyers explain it?

The Insurrection Act has not been officially invoked, but deployment orders have been given. 

This is unconstitutional.

EXCLUSIVE: We obtained memo from DHS Secretary Kristi Noem asking DOD Secretary Pete Hegseth to grant soldiers the authority to detain or arrest “lawbreakers” in LA.

This would be a step toward Trump administration invoking Insurrection Act, experts say

https://t.co/aCoFBFAJHI

BREAKING: U.S. MILITARY TO DEPLOY ABOUT 700 MARINES TO LOS ANGELES TEMPORARILY UNTIL NATIONAL GUARD TROOPS ARRIVE, U.S. OFFICIAL TELLS REUTERS

MARINES BEING DEPLOYED ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN A SUPPORT ROLE, NO INVOCATION OF INSURRECTION ACT, OFFICIAL SAYS

As Trump moves to expand military deployments, possibly using protests in L.A. as a pretext for more broadly silencing free speech or even imposing martial law, I’ll be reintroducing reforms to the Insurrection Act that check potential abuse or overreach. https://t.co/XjFjjFQDsI

We know last year the Dems were talking about nullifying the Insurrection Act and it was obvious why. They were always planning for mass mobilization of their ground militants in response to the ICE Raids. And now that is exactly what we are seeing

There are growing calls on the right for Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act.

15% chance it happens this month.

President Donald Trump is contemplating invoking the Insurrection Act to deploy military forces in Los Angeles amid escalating riots, sparking legal and political controversy. California Governor Gavin Newsom and other Democrats have criticized the move as a threat to democracy, while protests and curfews intensify in the city.

Pam Bondi doesn't answer questions about what the legal threshold is for the administration invoking the Insurrection Act https://t.co/6v8FHj2ROs

🚨LISTEN NOW

Should Trump Enact the Insurrection Act to Quell L.A. Riots?

Col. Douglas Macgregor Says “YES — &amp; JoinedThe StoneZONE on 77WABC Radio!

🎧 ICYMI: https://t.co/QHycWSpkW7 https://t.co/ntPz8MQFGc

New in PN: Trump's ludicrous legal rationale for occupying LA

"The problem, as is often the case, is that Trump's flouting norms, not just laws. If he chooses to read the Insurrection Act absurdly broadly, it’s not clear there's an easy way to stop him." https://t.co/sWoQLeALqq

After literally refusing to act and creating a national security threat in LA where Trump has to send in the military and is clearly getting ready to suspend habeas corpus by invoking Article II powers and the Insurrection Act...

Gavin Newsom just appeared on my TV all worried

Mr. President, it's time to invoke the Insurrection Act! https://t.co/64IaJ3MzkL

President Trump, hoping to restore "safety" to riot-hit Los Angeles, demurred on invoking the Insurrection Act to go full force with the U.S. military, but said "we'll see what happens." MORE: https://t.co/8NAwDBGdwD https://t.co/qd9fgzCxCF

🚨🇺🇸 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝗦𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗛𝗲 𝗪𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 ‘𝗖𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗹𝘆 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗼𝗸𝗲’ 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗔𝗰𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗟𝗔 𝗜𝗳 𝗡𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗱

When asked whether he would invoke the act, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office: “If there’s an insurrection, I would certainly invoke it. https://t.co/oBMTOH9Brh

Sen. Tom Cotton backs use of Insurrection Act to quell LA riots — 5 years after controversial NYT op-ed : ‘Overwhelming show of force’ https://t.co/l4Kt5MdKdD https://t.co/1KqqwrGfJf

Federal judge denies Newsom’s lawsuit to block 4,000 National Guard &amp; 700 Marines in L.A.

Democrats demand end to ICE raids, not troops, as riots escalate

“No Kings” protests loom as Trump hints at Insurrection Act https://t.co/NHmpVJiLAQ

California governor Gavin Newsom struck back at Trump for deploying military troops to LA as President Trump threatens to invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807. https://t.co/WE8B4bnLlb

As President Donald Trump stresses law and order in Los Angeles, he’s floated the implementation of the Insurrection Act. California Gov. Gavin Newsom called Trump’s use of the military a threat to democracy. More: https://t.co/bq3A4UPoyI https://t.co/xFgcgoaBRS

🔴 A curfew is in place in Los Angeles and Donald Trump has labelled protesters "paid insurrectionists" – a phrase which opens the door to the president invoking the 1807 Insurrection Act. 

Read the latest on the LA riots ⤵️
https://t.co/ybqhfTaeJ0

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) between October 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Trump declares another national emergency by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration takes a formal action or makes an official announcement directing the deployment of National Guard troops to the listed city by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying announcement or action will count, regardless of if/when the deployment actually occurs, or if the deployment is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.

Qualifying actions include but are not limited to:
- A Presidential action (e.g., Executive Order, Presidential Memorandum) that directs or announces National Guard deployment to the listed city.
- An official White House/DoD/National Guard Bureau press release, fact sheet, or order explicitly stating that National Guard troops will be deployed to the listed city.
- A Secretary of Defense or NGB directive/order that calls up or assigns National Guard forces to the listed city, including under Title 32 (state control with federal funding) or Title 10 (federalized).
- An official federal announcement that specific state Guard units (including the listed city National Guard or out-of-state Guard) are being sent to the listed city.

Non-qualifying actions include:
- Informal announcements/social media posts which do not constitute a formal policy announcement 
- Ambiguous remarks, “we’re considering it,” broad statements like “ready to go anywhere,” or contingent plans without a clear directive to the listed city.
- Generic posture changes (e.g., standing up quick-reaction forces “nationwide”) that do not explicitly name the listed city as a deployment location.
- A state-only activation by the listed city's state Governor without any official Trump administration action or announcement about sending the Guard to the listed city.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump send the national guard to Los Angeles by December 31?

In November 2025, Donald Trump indicated his intent to urge the United States Justice Department to investigate alleged ties between Jeffrey Epstein and Bill Clinton. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-he-will-ask-justice-department-probe-epstein-ties-with-bill-clinton-2025-11-14/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bill Clinton is indicted on federal charges or otherwise formally charged with any federal crime by the United States of America between November 14, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Bill Clinton be federally indicted by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues a presidential veto of any bill by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official congressional records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump veto a bill in 2025?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues a presidential veto, by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, of any bill or resolution that explicitly mandates, compels, or formally calls for the public release of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be official congressional records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump vetoes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public
- Trump out as President
- Trump impeached
- Any Trump cabinet member out

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Trump-Epstein+Parlay.pdf

Trump-Epstein Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Internal Revenue Department ceases operations entirely by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the IRS is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Internal Revenue Service it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?

On August 18, 2025, President Donald J. Trump announced his commitment to eliminate mail-in voting and voting machines in U.S. elections, ahead of the 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that inhibits mail-in voting or voting machines from use for the 2026 midterm election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any executive action or legislation that restricts, limits, or prohibits the use of mail-in voting or voting machines in any way will qualify, even if the action is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.

Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially appoints, or announces the appointment of a special prosecutor, special counsel, or other independent prosecutor to investigate matters related to Jeffrey Epstein by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
 
To qualify, the appointee must be explicitly tasked with investigating the Epstein case. A public statement from Trump, the White House, or the Department of Justice confirming the appointment will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of when the appointment goes into effect. 

General statements of intent without a named appointee will not qualify. 

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration or a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump appoints special prosecutor for Epstein case in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration officially announces that they will be sending US troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must be part of a formal agreement between the United States and another country or international organization or otherwise indicative of a formalized policy.

Announcement which are statements of intent, contingent, or otherwise are not indicative of a formalized policy will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump agrees to send U.S. peacekeeping force to Ukraine?

On September 1, 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration may declare a national housing emergency this fall to address high housing costs.(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bessent-says-trump-administration-will-tackle-high-housing-costs-with-new-2025-09-01/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) primarily addressing housing by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Will Trump announce a national housing emergency in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal programs and activities managed by the agency, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If NASA is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump end NASA in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between June 5, and  December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Elon Musk?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is formally charged or criminally indicted for insider trading related to a tariff policy announcement made during the second Trump administration between July 11 and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will anyone be charged for insider trading Trump tariff announcements?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that Donald Trump has visited visited Little Saint James by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place Trump on the island.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un all meet with Donald Trump between October 24, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump meets Xi, Putin, and Kim by December 31?

On April 2, Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports set to take effect on April 5, 2025 at 12:01 a.m. EDT (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which pauses, delays, or removes the 10% general tariff by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions which remove the general 10% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. However, lowering the general tariff below 10% without removing it will not qualify.

Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits North Korea between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America enters a state of civil war by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming the US is in a civil war.

Note: Media reports that use the phrase "civil war" metaphorically will not count. Only a wide consensus of reporting that the US has entered a literal civil war will qualify.

US civil war in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.

For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.

Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?

Market Context

Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?

Rules

Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?

Market Context

Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?

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