Market icon
Politics·Canada

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Market icon
Politics·Canada

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

78% chance
Polymarket

$276,682 Vol.

78% chance
Polymarket

$276,682 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Alberta separatists leading the Stay Free Alberta citizen initiative announced on March 31 that their petition has surpassed the 177,732-signature threshold required under provincial law to trigger a constitutional referendum on independence from Canada, potentially added to the government-scheduled October 19, 2026, ballot alongside nine other questions on immigration limits and federal relations. Premier Danielle Smith pledged to advance the vote if verified by Elections Alberta, fueling trader consensus at 77.5% yes probability amid heightened federal-provincial tensions over equalization payments, energy regulations, and carbon taxes. While public support for secession remains low at around 25%, the procedural breakthrough dominates market positioning ahead of signature validation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$276,682
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Alberta separatists leading the Stay Free Alberta citizen initiative announced on March 31 that their petition has surpassed the 177,732-signature threshold required under provincial law to trigger a constitutional referendum on independence from Canada, potentially added to the government-scheduled October 19, 2026, ballot alongside nine other questions on immigration limits and federal relations. Premier Danielle Smith pledged to advance the vote if verified by Elections Alberta, fueling trader consensus at 77.5% yes probability amid heightened federal-provincial tensions over equalization payments, energy regulations, and carbon taxes. While public support for secession remains low at around 25%, the procedural breakthrough dominates market positioning ahead of signature validation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$276,682
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Related

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Another Canada election called by June 30?

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Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?

4%
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Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?

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Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 78% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 78¢, the market collectively assigns a 78% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?" has generated $276.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?" is 78% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 78% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.