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Politics·SBF

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

icon for Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Politics·SBF

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

$460,966 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$460,966 Vol.

Polymarket

Roger Stone

$8,405 Vol.

22%

Stefan Brodie

$2,809 Vol.

20%

Donald Brodie

$3,996 Vol.

19%

Ryan Salame

$31,822 Vol.

15%

Keonne Rodriguez

$17,544 Vol.

15%

Roger Ver

$2,182 Vol.

11%

Daniel Penny

$508 Vol.

11%

Steve Bannon

$8,029 Vol.

9%

Matt Gaetz

$5,828 Vol.

9%

Ghislaine Maxwell

$24,717 Vol.

9%

Eric Adams

$1,101 Vol.

9%

Joe Exotic

$5,369 Vol.

9%

Young Thug

$4,702 Vol.

7%

Bob Menendez

$295 Vol.

6%

Julian Assange

$4,218 Vol.

6%

Martin Shkreli

$30,439 Vol.

6%

Elizabeth Holmes

$3,607 Vol.

5%

Nicolas Maduro

$10,351 Vol.

5%

Diddy

$30,169 Vol.

4%

Hunter Biden

$5,581 Vol.

4%

Edward Snowden

$3,183 Vol.

4%

Sam Bankman-Fried

$135,801 Vol.

4%

Derek Chauvin

$26,611 Vol.

4%

Andrew Tate

$1,035 Vol.

3%

Antoine Massey

$2,480 Vol.

3%

Himself

$13,648 Vol.

3%

Do Kwon

$23,621 Vol.

3%

Elon Musk

$52,917 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump has exercised clemency extensively in his second term, issuing over 1,700 grants since January 2025, including a blanket pardon for roughly 1,500 January 6 defendants on inauguration day and subsequent actions for fake electors, fraud convictions, drug offenses, and firearms cases. Recent examples include September 2026 pardons for a Navy veteran convicted on weapons charges and a drug offender linked to entertainment figures, often bypassing traditional DOJ review in favor of advocacy from allies and donors. Trader focus on specific names reflects patterns of support for political figures, crypto executives, and gun-rights cases, with resolution tied to official grants through December 31, 2026; the 2026 midterm cycle and any late-term priorities could influence further actions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$460,966
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump has exercised clemency extensively in his second term, issuing over 1,700 grants since January 2025, including a blanket pardon for roughly 1,500 January 6 defendants on inauguration day and subsequent actions for fake electors, fraud convictions, drug offenses, and firearms cases. Recent examples include September 2026 pardons for a Navy veteran convicted on weapons charges and a drug offender linked to entertainment figures, often bypassing traditional DOJ review in favor of advocacy from allies and donors. Trader focus on specific names reflects patterns of support for political figures, crypto executives, and gun-rights cases, with resolution tied to official grants through December 31, 2026; the 2026 midterm cycle and any late-term priorities could influence further actions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$460,966
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 28 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Roger Stone" at 22%, followed by "Stefan Brodie" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" has generated $461K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?," browse the 28 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is "Roger Stone" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Stefan Brodie" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.