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Politics·Trump

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Market icon
Politics·Trump

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

$158,296 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$158,296 Vol.

Polymarket

Stefan Brodie

$0 Vol.

67%

Donald Brodie

$0 Vol.

65%

Matt Gaetz

$0 Vol.

50%

Daniel Penny

$1 Vol.

41%

Keonne Rodriguez

$0 Vol.

29%

Ryan Salame

$15,064 Vol.

22%

Young Thug

$3,983 Vol.

34%

Steve Bannon

$0 Vol.

20%

Roger Ver

$0 Vol.

18%

Elizabeth Holmes

$915 Vol.

16%

Martin Shkreli

$2,795 Vol.

13%

Nicolas Maduro

$5,967 Vol.

10%

Do Kwon

$15,747 Vol.

10%

Eric Adams

$60 Vol.

9%

Hunter Biden

$2,046 Vol.

8%

Bob Menendez

$0 Vol.

23%

Ghislaine Maxwell

$9,573 Vol.

7%

Sam Bankman-Fried

$35,026 Vol.

7%

Derek Chauvin

$6,319 Vol.

7%

Diddy

$5,826 Vol.

7%

Edward Snowden

$1,748 Vol.

15%

Antoine Massey

$0 Vol.

5%

Elon Musk

$48,946 Vol.

5%

Joe Exotic

$330 Vol.

14%

Julian Assange

$1,500 Vol.

10%

Himself

$2,448 Vol.

4%

Roger Stone

$0 Vol.

38%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Stefan Brodie, a billionaire convicted of conspiring to violate U.S. sanctions on Cuba, at 65% implied probability of receiving a presidential pardon before 2027, with brother Donald Brodie close at 64%, reflecting President Trump's pattern of granting clemency to over 1,600 individuals—many major donors, allies, and white-collar offenders like Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows—in batches through February 2026. No new pardons have been announced in the past 30 days amid March analyses criticizing relief from billions in restitution for fraud cases, yet the Brodies' recent multimillion-dollar contributions to Trump's White House ballroom renovation and prior Biden denial fuel expectations. Trump's unlimited pardon power persists until term end, with no scheduled events but potential for executive action anytime.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$158,296
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Stefan Brodie, a billionaire convicted of conspiring to violate U.S. sanctions on Cuba, at 65% implied probability of receiving a presidential pardon before 2027, with brother Donald Brodie close at 64%, reflecting President Trump's pattern of granting clemency to over 1,600 individuals—many major donors, allies, and white-collar offenders like Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows—in batches through February 2026. No new pardons have been announced in the past 30 days amid March analyses criticizing relief from billions in restitution for fraud cases, yet the Brodies' recent multimillion-dollar contributions to Trump's White House ballroom renovation and prior Biden denial fuel expectations. Trump's unlimited pardon power persists until term end, with no scheduled events but potential for executive action anytime.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$158,296
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 27 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Stefan Brodie" at 67%, followed by "Donald Brodie" at 65%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" has generated $158.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?," browse the 27 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is "Stefan Brodie" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Donald Brodie" at 65%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.