President Trump's recent ouster of Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2, following Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's replacement by Senator Markwayne Mullin in late March, signals accelerating cabinet turnover in the second term, driving elevated trader consensus on further departures before year-end 2026. FBI Director Kash Patel leads at 77% implied probability of exit, fueled by reports of internal discussions alongside Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, amid frustrations over policy execution and agency performance. High first-term churn rates and ongoing White House shake-ups underpin odds above 60% for figures like Howard Lutnick, Tulsi Gabbard, and John Ratcliffe, though announcements or role transitions could swiftly alter trajectories; Senate confirmation dynamics for replacements remain a key watchpoint.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$766,970 Vol.
Kash Patel
77%
Howard Lutnick
68%
Tulsi Gabbard
59%
Kristi Noem
59%
Lee Zeldin
49%
Pete Hegseth
43%
Karoline Leavitt
42%
Dan Scavino
39%
John Ratcliffe
39%
Susie Wiles
34%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
28%
David Sacks
25%
Scott Bessent
18%
Stephen Miller
17%
Marco Rubio
17%
Russell Vought
51%
Tom Homan
50%
$766,970 Vol.
Kash Patel
77%
Howard Lutnick
68%
Tulsi Gabbard
59%
Kristi Noem
59%
Lee Zeldin
49%
Pete Hegseth
43%
Karoline Leavitt
42%
Dan Scavino
39%
John Ratcliffe
39%
Susie Wiles
34%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
28%
David Sacks
25%
Scott Bessent
18%
Stephen Miller
17%
Marco Rubio
17%
Russell Vought
51%
Tom Homan
50%
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's recent ouster of Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2, following Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's replacement by Senator Markwayne Mullin in late March, signals accelerating cabinet turnover in the second term, driving elevated trader consensus on further departures before year-end 2026. FBI Director Kash Patel leads at 77% implied probability of exit, fueled by reports of internal discussions alongside Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, amid frustrations over policy execution and agency performance. High first-term churn rates and ongoing White House shake-ups underpin odds above 60% for figures like Howard Lutnick, Tulsi Gabbard, and John Ratcliffe, though announcements or role transitions could swiftly alter trajectories; Senate confirmation dynamics for replacements remain a key watchpoint.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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