Trader sentiment on the next Trump cabinet departure hinges on intensifying scrutiny of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, whose department faces an inspector general probe into staff misconduct, with multiple aides resigning or fired in recent weeks, fueling reports of President Trump's dissatisfaction and potential ouster plans. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard trails closely amid fresh rumors—denied by the White House—that Trump has privately explored replacements, amplified by ongoing Iran tensions and prior counterterrorism resignations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's aggressive purge of Army generals underscores internal military friction but bolsters his position short-term. This tight contest reflects post-Pam Bondi shakeup volatility, with separation likely from inspector general findings, confirmation hearing outcomes for successors, or escalation in foreign policy disputes before midterms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedLori Chavez-DeRemer 32%
Tulsi Gabbard 27%
Pete Hegseth 16%
Howard Lutnick 9%
$10,854 Vol.
$10,854 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
32%
Tulsi Gabbard
27%
Pete Hegseth
16%
Howard Lutnick
9%
Lee Zeldin
6%
Susie Wiles
3%
Brooke Rollins
3%
None before 2027
3%
Mike Waltz
2%
Jamieson Greer
2%
Marco Rubio
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Doug Collins
<1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Chris Wright
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Scott Bessent
<1%
Scott Turner
<1%
Linda McMahon
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 32%
Tulsi Gabbard 27%
Pete Hegseth 16%
Howard Lutnick 9%
$10,854 Vol.
$10,854 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$731 Vol.
32%
Tulsi Gabbard
$623 Vol.
27%
Pete Hegseth
$467 Vol.
16%
Howard Lutnick
$394 Vol.
9%
Lee Zeldin
$1,592 Vol.
6%
Susie Wiles
$362 Vol.
3%
Brooke Rollins
$385 Vol.
3%
None before 2027
$363 Vol.
3%
Mike Waltz
$457 Vol.
2%
Jamieson Greer
$352 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$565 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$370 Vol.
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$575 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$384 Vol.
1%
Russell T. Vought
$355 Vol.
1%
Doug Burgum
$354 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$420 Vol.
<1%
Sean Duffy
$352 Vol.
<1%
Chris Wright
$354 Vol.
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$352 Vol.
<1%
Scott Bessent
$352 Vol.
<1%
Scott Turner
$348 Vol.
<1%
Linda McMahon
$348 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader sentiment on the next Trump cabinet departure hinges on intensifying scrutiny of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, whose department faces an inspector general probe into staff misconduct, with multiple aides resigning or fired in recent weeks, fueling reports of President Trump's dissatisfaction and potential ouster plans. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard trails closely amid fresh rumors—denied by the White House—that Trump has privately explored replacements, amplified by ongoing Iran tensions and prior counterterrorism resignations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's aggressive purge of Army generals underscores internal military friction but bolsters his position short-term. This tight contest reflects post-Pam Bondi shakeup volatility, with separation likely from inspector general findings, confirmation hearing outcomes for successors, or escalation in foreign policy disputes before midterms.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$10,854End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader sentiment on the next Trump cabinet departure hinges on intensifying scrutiny of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, whose department faces an inspector general probe into staff misconduct, with multiple aides resigning or fired in recent weeks, fueling reports of President Trump's dissatisfaction and potential ouster plans. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard trails closely amid fresh rumors—denied by the White House—that Trump has privately explored replacements, amplified by ongoing Iran tensions and prior counterterrorism resignations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's aggressive purge of Army generals underscores internal military friction but bolsters his position short-term. This tight contest reflects post-Pam Bondi shakeup volatility, with separation likely from inspector general findings, confirmation hearing outcomes for successors, or escalation in foreign policy disputes before midterms.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$10,854End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on the next Trump cabinet departure hinges on intensifying scrutiny of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, whose department faces an inspector general probe into staff misconduct, with multiple aides resigning or fired in recent weeks, fueling reports of President Trump's dissatisfaction and potential ouster plans. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard trails closely amid fresh rumors—denied by the White House—that Trump has privately explored replacements, amplified by ongoing Iran tensions and prior counterterrorism resignations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's aggressive purge of Army generals underscores internal military friction but bolsters his position short-term. This tight contest reflects post-Pam Bondi shakeup volatility, with separation likely from inspector general findings, confirmation hearing outcomes for successors, or escalation in foreign policy disputes before midterms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions