Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

Name: Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?
Start: 2025-12-12T00:45:56.620Z
End: 2026-02-28T00:00:00.000Z

Politics·United Nations

Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

Jacinda Ardern 29.6%

Michelle Bachelet 13%

Kristalina Georgieva 4.0%

David Choquehuanca 1.9%

$0.00 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026

Jacinda Ardern

$0 Vol.

30%

Michelle Bachelet

$0 Vol.

13%

Kristalina Georgieva

$0 Vol.

24%

David Choquehuanca

$0 Vol.

Vuk Jeremić

$0 Vol.

Colombe Cahen-Salvador

$0 Vol.

Achim Steiner

$0 Vol.

Alicia Bárcena

$0 Vol.

Rebeca Grynspan

$0 Vol.

45%

Bruno Donat

$0 Vol.

30%

Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés

$0 Vol.

36%

Mia Mottley

$0 Vol.

45%

Rafael Grossi

$0 Vol.

Amina Mohammed

$0 Vol.

45%

Jacinda Ardern 29.6%

Michelle Bachelet 13%

Kristalina Georgieva 4.0%

David Choquehuanca 1.9%

$0.00 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026

Jacinda Ardern

$0 Vol.

30%

Michelle Bachelet

$0 Vol.

13%

Kristalina Georgieva

$0 Vol.

24%

David Choquehuanca

$0 Vol.

Vuk Jeremić

$0 Vol.

Colombe Cahen-Salvador

$0 Vol.

Achim Steiner

$0 Vol.

Alicia Bárcena

$0 Vol.

Rebeca Grynspan

$0 Vol.

45%

Bruno Donat

$0 Vol.

30%

Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés

$0 Vol.

36%

Mia Mottley

$0 Vol.

45%

Rafael Grossi

$0 Vol.

Amina Mohammed

$0 Vol.

45%

A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count. If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the UN Secretary-General succession as a tight contest, with UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed (45.6%), Costa Rican diplomat Rebeca Grynspan (45.1%), and Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley (44.2%) virtually tied, reflecting diverse strengths in UN experience, multilateral diplomacy, and climate leadership amid regional rotation preferences favoring Latin America and the Caribbean post-António Guterres' term ending in 2026. This clustering persists in the informal pre-candidacy phase, where no official nominees exist and Security Council straw polls—sensitive to P5 vetoes—remain pending, balancing gender diversity pushes against geographic equity. Separation could arise from Guterres' re-election stance clarification, early endorsements, or P5 signaling by mid-2025, as traders weigh resumes against opaque selection dynamics.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 22, 2026, 6:54 AM UTC

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37%

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60%

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24%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Rebeca Grynspan" at 45%, followed by "Mia Mottley" at 45%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 12, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?" is "Rebeca Grynspan" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mia Mottley" at 45%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 45¢ for "Rebeca Grynspan" in the "Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 45% chance that "Rebeca Grynspan" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 45¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 55¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.

The "Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?" market has a growing discussion of 3 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

Rules

Market Context

Market Context

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Comments (3)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

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What does a price of 45¢ for "Rebeca Grynspan" mean?

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