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Market icon
World·Iran

Next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Market icon
World·Iran

Next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Mojtaba Khamenei 45.3%

Alireza Arafi 15.4%

Position abolished 7.4%

None by June 30 7.1%

Polymarket

$22,830,380 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 45.3%

Alireza Arafi 15.4%

Position abolished 7.4%

None by June 30 7.1%

Polymarket

$22,830,380 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$6,049,252 Vol.

45%

Alireza Arafi

$1,949,190 Vol.

15%

Position abolished

$1,258,379 Vol.

7%

None by June 30

$839,756 Vol.

7%

Sadegh Larijani

$591,515 Vol.

4%

Hassan Khomeini

$730,080 Vol.

4%

Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i

$612,518 Vol.

4%

Hassan Rouhani

$661,063 Vol.

3%

Ali Larijani

$852,419 Vol.

2%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$551,570 Vol.

2%

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri

$506,667 Vol.

1%

Reza Pahlavi

$795,113 Vol.

1%

Mohsen Araki

$449,974 Vol.

1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$366,720 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Khatami

$278,978 Vol.

<1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$464,764 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi

$374,322 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Qomi

$340,377 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$250,634 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$141,597 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$205,376 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$246,032 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$195,112 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$344,495 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Hadi Ghazanfari Khansari

$259,328 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$213,021 Vol.

<1%

Abbas Araghchi

$170,296 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$224,175 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$249,981 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$221,438 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$185,147 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$221,706 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$227,029 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$194,742 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$430,399 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$324,039 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Yasrebi

$144,078 Vol.

<1%

Khalil Mobasher Kashani

$146,198 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$229,146 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$342,329 Vol.

<1%

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts.

This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”.

Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme Leader or a direct constitutional equivalent will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$22,830,380
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 4:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts. This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei. Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market. If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”. If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”. Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme Leader or a direct constitutional equivalent will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

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Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?

76%
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US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

22%
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Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

62%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Supreme Leader of Iran?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 40+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 45%, followed by "Alireza Arafi" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Supreme Leader of Iran?" has generated $22.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Supreme Leader of Iran?," browse the 40+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Supreme Leader of Iran?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alireza Arafi" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Supreme Leader of Iran?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.