Trader sentiment on individual arrest probabilities before December 31, 2026, centers on active federal investigations and enforcement priorities. Markets assign the highest implied odds to former intelligence officials such as John Brennan and James Comey, reflecting ongoing grand jury activity and subpoenas tied to prior official conduct. Protest-related cases, including those involving Mahmoud Khalil, have drawn volume amid expanded use of charges for obstruction or conspiracy during immigration enforcement operations. Lower-priced outcomes for figures like Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, or Letitia James indicate limited active probes or structural barriers such as statutes of limitations. Resolution requires physical custody or voluntary surrender on a warrant; mere indictments or unexecuted warrants do not trigger payouts. Scheduled court dates, confirmation hearings, and any new indictments through late 2026 remain the primary near-term catalysts.