Trader sentiment in the "Who will be arrested before 2027?" multi-outcome market reflects ongoing DOJ and international probes into former U.S. officials and activists, tempered by high procedural hurdles for high-profile detentions by year-end. Leading candidates such as John Brennan and Mahmoud Khalil draw volume due to prior investigations into intelligence matters and protest-related charges, respectively, with recent court rulings potentially enabling further enforcement actions. Similar dynamics apply to figures like Anthony Fauci and James Comey amid congressional scrutiny and James Comey-related plea timelines. International entries including Viktor Orbán and Lee Jae-myung track specific national cases involving corruption or prior indictments. Overall probabilities remain modest because arrests require executed warrants or physical custody rather than indictments alone, and political or evidentiary shifts could still alter trajectories before December 31, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWho will be arrested before 2027?
Who will be arrested before 2027?
$451,810 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthony Fauci
8%
John Brennan
20%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
6%
Adam Schiff
3%
Barack Obama
2%
James Comey
5%
Mahmoud Khalil
16%
James Clapper
12%
Letitia James
5%
Hillary Clinton
3%
Bill Clinton
1%
Loretta Lynch
3%
Susan Rice
11%
Candace Owens
7%
Gavin Newsom
2%
Benjamin Netanyahu
8%
John Kerry
1%
Pam Bondi
6%
Tom Homan
3%
Kash Patel
1%
Brandon Johnson
10%
Lisa Cook
4%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
Joe Biden
2%
$451,810 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
$177,978 Vol.
8%
John Brennan
$29,442 Vol.
20%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$25,714 Vol.
6%
Adam Schiff
$17,083 Vol.
3%
Barack Obama
$29,834 Vol.
2%
James Comey
$11,372 Vol.
5%
Mahmoud Khalil
$2,071 Vol.
16%
James Clapper
$8,482 Vol.
12%
Letitia James
$5,041 Vol.
5%
Hillary Clinton
$28,683 Vol.
3%
Bill Clinton
$3,023 Vol.
1%
Loretta Lynch
$2,652 Vol.
3%
Susan Rice
$404 Vol.
11%
Candace Owens
$308 Vol.
7%
Gavin Newsom
$41,021 Vol.
2%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$3,179 Vol.
8%
John Kerry
$503 Vol.
1%
Pam Bondi
$3,305 Vol.
6%
Tom Homan
$43,832 Vol.
3%
Kash Patel
$607 Vol.
1%
Brandon Johnson
$3,316 Vol.
10%
Lisa Cook
$4,052 Vol.
4%
Lee Jun-seok
$794 Vol.
11%
Joe Biden
$9,115 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in the "Who will be arrested before 2027?" multi-outcome market reflects ongoing DOJ and international probes into former U.S. officials and activists, tempered by high procedural hurdles for high-profile detentions by year-end. Leading candidates such as John Brennan and Mahmoud Khalil draw volume due to prior investigations into intelligence matters and protest-related charges, respectively, with recent court rulings potentially enabling further enforcement actions. Similar dynamics apply to figures like Anthony Fauci and James Comey amid congressional scrutiny and James Comey-related plea timelines. International entries including Viktor Orbán and Lee Jae-myung track specific national cases involving corruption or prior indictments. Overall probabilities remain modest because arrests require executed warrants or physical custody rather than indictments alone, and political or evidentiary shifts could still alter trajectories before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$451,810End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in the "Who will be arrested before 2027?" multi-outcome market reflects ongoing DOJ and international probes into former U.S. officials and activists, tempered by high procedural hurdles for high-profile detentions by year-end. Leading candidates such as John Brennan and Mahmoud Khalil draw volume due to prior investigations into intelligence matters and protest-related charges, respectively, with recent court rulings potentially enabling further enforcement actions. Similar dynamics apply to figures like Anthony Fauci and James Comey amid congressional scrutiny and James Comey-related plea timelines. International entries including Viktor Orbán and Lee Jae-myung track specific national cases involving corruption or prior indictments. Overall probabilities remain modest because arrests require executed warrants or physical custody rather than indictments alone, and political or evidentiary shifts could still alter trajectories before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$451,810End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Trader sentiment in the "Who will be arrested before 2027?" multi-outcome market reflects ongoing DOJ and international probes into former U.S. officials and activists, tempered by high procedural hurdles for high-profile detentions by year-end. Leading candidates such as John Brennan and Mahmoud Khalil draw volume due to prior investigations into intelligence matters and protest-related charges, respectively, with recent court rulings potentially enabling further enforcement actions. Similar dynamics apply to figures like Anthony Fauci and James Comey amid congressional scrutiny and James Comey-related plea timelines. International entries including Viktor Orbán and Lee Jae-myung track specific national cases involving corruption or prior indictments. Overall probabilities remain modest because arrests require executed warrants or physical custody rather than indictments alone, and political or evidentiary shifts could still alter trajectories before December 31, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions