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Politics·James Comey

Who will be arrested before 2027?

icon for Who will be arrested before 2027?
Politics·James Comey

Who will be arrested before 2027?

$452,191 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$452,191 Vol.

Polymarket

Anthony Fauci

$177,978 Vol.

8%

John Brennan

$29,447 Vol.

21%

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

$25,714 Vol.

6%

Adam Schiff

$17,083 Vol.

3%

Barack Obama

$29,834 Vol.

2%

James Comey

$11,372 Vol.

5%

Mahmoud Khalil

$2,071 Vol.

16%

James Clapper

$8,482 Vol.

12%

Letitia James

$5,041 Vol.

5%

Hillary Clinton

$28,683 Vol.

3%

Bill Clinton

$3,023 Vol.

1%

Loretta Lynch

$2,652 Vol.

2%

Susan Rice

$404 Vol.

9%

Candace Owens

$308 Vol.

7%

Gavin Newsom

$41,211 Vol.

3%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$3,199 Vol.

8%

John Kerry

$503 Vol.

1%

Pam Bondi

$3,305 Vol.

7%

Tom Homan

$43,998 Vol.

3%

Kash Patel

$607 Vol.

1%

Brandon Johnson

$3,316 Vol.

10%

Lisa Cook

$4,052 Vol.

4%

Lee Jun-seok

$794 Vol.

11%

Joe Biden

$9,115 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Active DOJ investigations and ongoing legal proceedings against several listed figures, including former intelligence officials, shape trader focus in this multi-outcome market.** Court filings and motions in cases involving James Comey, alongside probes tied to prior administrations or protest-related actions, underpin higher implied probabilities for certain U.S. outcomes. International matters, such as constitutional immunity shielding South Korea's Lee Jae-myung and separate corruption trials abroad, contribute to lower probabilities for those candidates. Recent enforcement actions, including federal operations and indictments in 2026, illustrate prosecutorial priorities that traders weigh against procedural barriers like statutes of limitations or political protections. With resolution by December 31, 2026, scheduled court dates, appeals, and any new indictments within the window remain key variables that could shift consensus reflected in current pricing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$452,191
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Active DOJ investigations and ongoing legal proceedings against several listed figures, including former intelligence officials, shape trader focus in this multi-outcome market.** Court filings and motions in cases involving James Comey, alongside probes tied to prior administrations or protest-related actions, underpin higher implied probabilities for certain U.S. outcomes. International matters, such as constitutional immunity shielding South Korea's Lee Jae-myung and separate corruption trials abroad, contribute to lower probabilities for those candidates. Recent enforcement actions, including federal operations and indictments in 2026, illustrate prosecutorial priorities that traders weigh against procedural barriers like statutes of limitations or political protections. With resolution by December 31, 2026, scheduled court dates, appeals, and any new indictments within the window remain key variables that could shift consensus reflected in current pricing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$452,191
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be arrested before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 24 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "John Brennan" at 22%, followed by "Lee Jun-seok" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be arrested before 2027?" has generated $452.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be arrested before 2027?," browse the 24 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be arrested before 2027?" is "John Brennan" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lee Jun-seok" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be arrested before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.