Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on several high-profile figures facing active investigations or proceedings that could produce qualifying arrests or detentions by December 31, 2026. Leading probabilities attach to John Brennan amid ongoing scrutiny of prior intelligence matters, while Mahmoud Khalil draws attention from immigration enforcement actions and related court rulings. Other contenders such as James Comey, Anthony Fauci, and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero reflect probes tied to past official roles, congressional referrals, or foreign legal processes. Broader context includes federal priorities on enforcement operations and selective prosecutions, with resolution hinging on physical custody rather than charges or warrants alone. Limited time remains for new developments to shift implied probabilities before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWho will be arrested before 2027?
Who will be arrested before 2027?
$452,167 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthony Fauci
8%
John Brennan
20%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
6%
Adam Schiff
3%
Barack Obama
2%
James Comey
5%
Mahmoud Khalil
16%
James Clapper
12%
Letitia James
5%
Hillary Clinton
3%
Bill Clinton
1%
Loretta Lynch
2%
Susan Rice
11%
Candace Owens
7%
Gavin Newsom
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
8%
John Kerry
1%
Pam Bondi
6%
Tom Homan
2%
Kash Patel
1%
Brandon Johnson
10%
Lisa Cook
4%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
Joe Biden
1%
$452,167 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
$177,978 Vol.
8%
John Brennan
$29,442 Vol.
20%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$25,714 Vol.
6%
Adam Schiff
$17,083 Vol.
3%
Barack Obama
$29,834 Vol.
2%
James Comey
$11,372 Vol.
5%
Mahmoud Khalil
$2,071 Vol.
16%
James Clapper
$8,482 Vol.
12%
Letitia James
$5,041 Vol.
5%
Hillary Clinton
$28,683 Vol.
3%
Bill Clinton
$3,023 Vol.
1%
Loretta Lynch
$2,652 Vol.
2%
Susan Rice
$404 Vol.
11%
Candace Owens
$308 Vol.
7%
Gavin Newsom
$41,211 Vol.
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$3,179 Vol.
8%
John Kerry
$503 Vol.
1%
Pam Bondi
$3,305 Vol.
6%
Tom Homan
$43,998 Vol.
2%
Kash Patel
$607 Vol.
1%
Brandon Johnson
$3,316 Vol.
10%
Lisa Cook
$4,052 Vol.
4%
Lee Jun-seok
$794 Vol.
11%
Joe Biden
$9,115 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on several high-profile figures facing active investigations or proceedings that could produce qualifying arrests or detentions by December 31, 2026. Leading probabilities attach to John Brennan amid ongoing scrutiny of prior intelligence matters, while Mahmoud Khalil draws attention from immigration enforcement actions and related court rulings. Other contenders such as James Comey, Anthony Fauci, and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero reflect probes tied to past official roles, congressional referrals, or foreign legal processes. Broader context includes federal priorities on enforcement operations and selective prosecutions, with resolution hinging on physical custody rather than charges or warrants alone. Limited time remains for new developments to shift implied probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$452,167End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on several high-profile figures facing active investigations or proceedings that could produce qualifying arrests or detentions by December 31, 2026. Leading probabilities attach to John Brennan amid ongoing scrutiny of prior intelligence matters, while Mahmoud Khalil draws attention from immigration enforcement actions and related court rulings. Other contenders such as James Comey, Anthony Fauci, and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero reflect probes tied to past official roles, congressional referrals, or foreign legal processes. Broader context includes federal priorities on enforcement operations and selective prosecutions, with resolution hinging on physical custody rather than charges or warrants alone. Limited time remains for new developments to shift implied probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$452,167End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on several high-profile figures facing active investigations or proceedings that could produce qualifying arrests or detentions by December 31, 2026. Leading probabilities attach to John Brennan amid ongoing scrutiny of prior intelligence matters, while Mahmoud Khalil draws attention from immigration enforcement actions and related court rulings. Other contenders such as James Comey, Anthony Fauci, and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero reflect probes tied to past official roles, congressional referrals, or foreign legal processes. Broader context includes federal priorities on enforcement operations and selective prosecutions, with resolution hinging on physical custody rather than charges or warrants alone. Limited time remains for new developments to shift implied probabilities before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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