Recent polls have driven President Trump's approval rating below 40% for the first time in his second term, with the Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey (April 24-28) showing 37% approval and a record 62% disapproval, while Pew Research (April 20-26) recorded just 34%. Surging gas prices to over $4 per gallon—up sharply amid the ongoing war with Iran launched in February—have fueled cost-of-living concerns, eroding support even among Republicans and independents. Nate Silver's Bulletin average reflects a net -18 approval, but trader consensus on Polymarket prices a sub-39% reading at 55.5% probability for May 8, anticipating continued downward pressure absent major economic relief or diplomatic progress before resolution via polling average.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<39.0 56%
39.0–39.4 33%
39.5–39.9 10%
40.0–40.4 2.4%
$11,619 Vol.
$11,619 Vol.
May 9, 2026
<39.0
56%
39.0–39.4
33%
39.5–39.9
10%
40.0–40.4
2%
40.5–40.9
1%
41.0+
<1%
<39.0 56%
39.0–39.4 33%
39.5–39.9 10%
40.0–40.4 2.4%
$11,619 Vol.
$11,619 Vol.
May 9, 2026
<39.0
$4,297 Vol.
56%
39.0–39.4
$2,311 Vol.
33%
39.5–39.9
$2,093 Vol.
10%
40.0–40.4
$1,316 Vol.
2%
40.5–40.9
$760 Vol.
1%
41.0+
$842 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 8, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polls have driven President Trump's approval rating below 40% for the first time in his second term, with the Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey (April 24-28) showing 37% approval and a record 62% disapproval, while Pew Research (April 20-26) recorded just 34%. Surging gas prices to over $4 per gallon—up sharply amid the ongoing war with Iran launched in February—have fueled cost-of-living concerns, eroding support even among Republicans and independents. Nate Silver's Bulletin average reflects a net -18 approval, but trader consensus on Polymarket prices a sub-39% reading at 55.5% probability for May 8, anticipating continued downward pressure absent major economic relief or diplomatic progress before resolution via polling average.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 8, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$11,619End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 8, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polls have driven President Trump's approval rating below 40% for the first time in his second term, with the Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey (April 24-28) showing 37% approval and a record 62% disapproval, while Pew Research (April 20-26) recorded just 34%. Surging gas prices to over $4 per gallon—up sharply amid the ongoing war with Iran launched in February—have fueled cost-of-living concerns, eroding support even among Republicans and independents. Nate Silver's Bulletin average reflects a net -18 approval, but trader consensus on Polymarket prices a sub-39% reading at 55.5% probability for May 8, anticipating continued downward pressure absent major economic relief or diplomatic progress before resolution via polling average.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 8, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$11,619End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls have driven President Trump's approval rating below 40% for the first time in his second term, with the Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey (April 24-28) showing 37% approval and a record 62% disapproval, while Pew Research (April 20-26) recorded just 34%. Surging gas prices to over $4 per gallon—up sharply amid the ongoing war with Iran launched in February—have fueled cost-of-living concerns, eroding support even among Republicans and independents. Nate Silver's Bulletin average reflects a net -18 approval, but trader consensus on Polymarket prices a sub-39% reading at 55.5% probability for May 8, anticipating continued downward pressure absent major economic relief or diplomatic progress before resolution via polling average.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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