Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.3% for Rep. Eric Swalwell's arrest by May 31, reflecting the absence of formal charges or indictments despite multiple investigations launched in mid-April 2026 following sexual assault and misconduct allegations from several women. Swalwell resigned from Congress, suspended his California governor bid, and faces probes by the House Ethics Committee, Department of Justice, Los Angeles County DA, and Manhattan DA, but no arrests or arraignments have materialized over the past month amid his denials and ongoing evidence collection. Procedural hurdles in high-profile cases, including witness corroboration and legal reviews, typically delay action, with historical precedents showing months-long timelines before potential warrants. Late-breaking credible evidence or accelerated grand jury proceedings could shift odds, though such rapid escalation remains unlikely absent major new developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$12,776 Vol.
$12,776 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$12,776 Vol.
$12,776 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.3% for Rep. Eric Swalwell's arrest by May 31, reflecting the absence of formal charges or indictments despite multiple investigations launched in mid-April 2026 following sexual assault and misconduct allegations from several women. Swalwell resigned from Congress, suspended his California governor bid, and faces probes by the House Ethics Committee, Department of Justice, Los Angeles County DA, and Manhattan DA, but no arrests or arraignments have materialized over the past month amid his denials and ongoing evidence collection. Procedural hurdles in high-profile cases, including witness corroboration and legal reviews, typically delay action, with historical precedents showing months-long timelines before potential warrants. Late-breaking credible evidence or accelerated grand jury proceedings could shift odds, though such rapid escalation remains unlikely absent major new developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 2:57 PM ET
Volume
$12,776End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.3% for Rep. Eric Swalwell's arrest by May 31, reflecting the absence of formal charges or indictments despite multiple investigations launched in mid-April 2026 following sexual assault and misconduct allegations from several women. Swalwell resigned from Congress, suspended his California governor bid, and faces probes by the House Ethics Committee, Department of Justice, Los Angeles County DA, and Manhattan DA, but no arrests or arraignments have materialized over the past month amid his denials and ongoing evidence collection. Procedural hurdles in high-profile cases, including witness corroboration and legal reviews, typically delay action, with historical precedents showing months-long timelines before potential warrants. Late-breaking credible evidence or accelerated grand jury proceedings could shift odds, though such rapid escalation remains unlikely absent major new developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$12,776End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.3% for Rep. Eric Swalwell's arrest by May 31, reflecting the absence of formal charges or indictments despite multiple investigations launched in mid-April 2026 following sexual assault and misconduct allegations from several women. Swalwell resigned from Congress, suspended his California governor bid, and faces probes by the House Ethics Committee, Department of Justice, Los Angeles County DA, and Manhattan DA, but no arrests or arraignments have materialized over the past month amid his denials and ongoing evidence collection. Procedural hurdles in high-profile cases, including witness corroboration and legal reviews, typically delay action, with historical precedents showing months-long timelines before potential warrants. Late-breaking credible evidence or accelerated grand jury proceedings could shift odds, though such rapid escalation remains unlikely absent major new developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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