This market will resolve to “Biden” if Joe Biden has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Donald Trump according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 19, 2024. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Joe Biden according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 19, 2024. If Biden and Trump have equal odds, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve according to the datapoints for July 19 as soon as datapoints for July 20 become available. This market may not resolve until the July 20 datapoints are available. If no datapoints for July 19 are available by July 22, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to July 19.

Please note the resolution refers to the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 won by each candidate will NOT be considered.