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Which Party wins 2nd most seats in Canadian election?

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Which Party wins 2nd most seats in Canadian election?

Conservative Party 100.0%

Liberal Party <1%

Other <1%

New Democratic Party <1%

Polymarket

$3,542,497 Vol.

Conservative Party 100.0%

Liberal Party <1%

Other <1%

New Democratic Party <1%

Polymarket

$3,542,497 Vol.

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Conservative Party

$788,650 Vol.

Yes

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Liberal Party

$534,696 Vol.

No

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Other

$261,791 Vol.

No

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New Democratic Party

$559,364 Vol.

No

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Green Party

$760,888 Vol.

No

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Bloc Québécois

$404,734 Vol.

No

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People's Party

$232,374 Vol.

No

The next Canadian general election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Conservative Party of Canada wins the second most seats in the House of Commons as a result of the next Canadian general election.

If voting in the next Canadian general election does not occur by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the second most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Volume
$3,542,497
End Date
Apr 28, 2025
Market Opened
Jan 6, 2025, 1:11 PM ET
The next Canadian general election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Conservative Party of Canada wins the second most seats in the House of Commons as a result of the next Canadian general election. If voting in the next Canadian general election does not occur by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the second most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which Party wins 2nd most seats in Canadian election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Conservative Party" at 100%, followed by "Liberal Party" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which Party wins 2nd most seats in Canadian election?" has generated $3.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 6, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which Party wins 2nd most seats in Canadian election?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which Party wins 2nd most seats in Canadian election?" is "Conservative Party" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Liberal Party" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which Party wins 2nd most seats in Canadian election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.