President Donald Trump's ongoing military operations against Iran, now in their fourth week, dominate trader sentiment in this market tracking specific phrases he may utter publicly via speeches, press remarks, or Truth Social posts starting March 29. Recent catalysts include his March 27 Miami address at the Saudi Future Investment Initiative threatening Cuba as the next military target, a March 28 Truth Social warning that Iran faces overwhelming retaliation for any Strait of Hormuz oil disruptions, and announcements of productive bilateral talks prompting a five-day pause in U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Cabinet discussions on farmer aid amid war-related supply strains and criticism of NATO allies further highlight foreign policy and energy security themes. With sparse public schedule details beyond a potential Mar-a-Lago departure on March 29, traders weigh his pattern of frequent online updates against the closely contested probabilities reflecting uncertainty in exact phrasing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$463,872 Vol.
Mar 29, 2026
Paid a big price / Paying a big price
18%
Kaitlan Collins
4%
Eat our Lunch
7%
Ethanol
7%
Embargo
14%
Finish the Job
16%
Khamenei
9%
Chuck Norris
6%
$463,872 Vol.
Paid a big price / Paying a big price
$14,839 Vol.
18%
Kaitlan Collins
$3,974 Vol.
4%
Eat our Lunch
$1,215 Vol.
7%
Ethanol
$10,038 Vol.
7%
Embargo
$8,343 Vol.
14%
Finish the Job
$3,253 Vol.
16%
Khamenei
$51,498 Vol.
9%
Chuck Norris
$4,170 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.President Donald Trump's ongoing military operations against Iran, now in their fourth week, dominate trader sentiment in this market tracking specific phrases he may utter publicly via speeches, press remarks, or Truth Social posts starting March 29. Recent catalysts include his March 27 Miami address at the Saudi Future Investment Initiative threatening Cuba as the next military target, a March 28 Truth Social warning that Iran faces overwhelming retaliation for any Strait of Hormuz oil disruptions, and announcements of productive bilateral talks prompting a five-day pause in U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Cabinet discussions on farmer aid amid war-related supply strains and criticism of NATO allies further highlight foreign policy and energy security themes. With sparse public schedule details beyond a potential Mar-a-Lago departure on March 29, traders weigh his pattern of frequent online updates against the closely contested probabilities reflecting uncertainty in exact phrasing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
Volume
$463,872End Date
Mar 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.President Donald Trump's ongoing military operations against Iran, now in their fourth week, dominate trader sentiment in this market tracking specific phrases he may utter publicly via speeches, press remarks, or Truth Social posts starting March 29. Recent catalysts include his March 27 Miami address at the Saudi Future Investment Initiative threatening Cuba as the next military target, a March 28 Truth Social warning that Iran faces overwhelming retaliation for any Strait of Hormuz oil disruptions, and announcements of productive bilateral talks prompting a five-day pause in U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Cabinet discussions on farmer aid amid war-related supply strains and criticism of NATO allies further highlight foreign policy and energy security themes. With sparse public schedule details beyond a potential Mar-a-Lago departure on March 29, traders weigh his pattern of frequent online updates against the closely contested probabilities reflecting uncertainty in exact phrasing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Volume
$463,872End Date
Mar 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
President Donald Trump's ongoing military operations against Iran, now in their fourth week, dominate trader sentiment in this market tracking specific phrases he may utter publicly via speeches, press remarks, or Truth Social posts starting March 29. Recent catalysts include his March 27 Miami address at the Saudi Future Investment Initiative threatening Cuba as the next military target, a March 28 Truth Social warning that Iran faces overwhelming retaliation for any Strait of Hormuz oil disruptions, and announcements of productive bilateral talks prompting a five-day pause in U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Cabinet discussions on farmer aid amid war-related supply strains and criticism of NATO allies further highlight foreign policy and energy security themes. With sparse public schedule details beyond a potential Mar-a-Lago departure on March 29, traders weigh his pattern of frequent online updates against the closely contested probabilities reflecting uncertainty in exact phrasing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions