Name: What will Trump Say during North Carolina town hall?
Start: 2024-10-02T21:28:45.787609Z
End: 2024-10-04T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting the statements made by Trump during a town hall event in North Carolina.

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border" 20 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between nations.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Border 20+

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border" 30 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between nations.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Border 30+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Kamala" 40 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Kamala" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to US vice president Kamala Harris.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Kamala 40+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "China" 10 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "China" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the country in East Asia officially named the People's Republic of China.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

China 10+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "tax" 10 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tax" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a compulsory financial charge imposed by a government authority.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Tax 10+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "million" 10 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "million" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a very large number.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Million 10+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "MAGA" or "make America great again" 3 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "MAGA" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to making America great again (e.g. "MAGA-themed" counts).

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

MAGA 3+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "President Xi" 2 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

President Xi 2+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "disgrace", "disgraceful", or "disgracefully" 2 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "disgrace", "disgraceful", or "disgracefully" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a shameful or unacceptable person or thing.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Disgrace 2+ times

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Obamacare", "ACA" or "Affordable Care Act" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Obamacare" or "ACA" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to US legislation titled the Affordable Care Act.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Obamacare/Affordable Care Act

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "school shooter" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

School Shooter

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Vance" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Vance" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to US VP candidate JD Vance.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Vance

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "debate" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "debate" is part of the compound word and references a public discussion between competing political candidates.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Debate

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "tampon" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tampon" is part of the compound word and references the feminine hygiene product.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Tampon

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "trans" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "trans" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a person whose gender identity does not correspond with the sex registered for them at birth (e.g. "transgender" counts).

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Trans

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "crypto" or "Bitcoin" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to decentralized cryptocurrency (e.g. "cryptocurrency-related" counts).

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Crypto/Bitcoin

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "tax queen" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Tax Queen

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "illegal alien" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Illegal Alien

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Ronald Reagan" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only instances of the full name "Ronald Reagan" will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Ronald Reagan

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Hezbollah" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Hezbollah" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the Shia political party/paramilitary group.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

Hezbollah

Donald Trump has scheduled a town hall on October 4 in Fayetteville, North Carolina (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-host-a-town-hall-in-fayetteville-nc).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "McDonald's" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "McDonald's" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the international fast food chain.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the event.

McDonald's

What will Trump Say during North Carolina town hall?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits North Korea between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?

Donald Trump is set to make an appearance at the 48th Annual Kennedy Center Honors, which is scheduled to air on December 23, 2025 (https://www.npr.org/2025/12/05/nx-s1-5607173/kennedy-center-honors-trump).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at the Kennedy Center Honors event on December 7, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Trump" at the Kennedy Center Honors event?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from North Carolina.

If no 2026 North Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". This market includes any potential runoff election.

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the North Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Michael Whatley be the Republican nominee for Senate in North Carolina?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from North Carolina.

If no 2026 North Carolina Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the North Carolina Democratic Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Roy Cooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in North Carolina?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm North Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Benjamin Netanyahu personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

This includes calling Netanyahu weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, or using other derogatory language. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

Any public statement made by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu by December 31?

On September 1, 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration may declare a national housing emergency this fall to address high housing costs.(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bessent-says-trump-administration-will-tackle-high-housing-costs-with-new-2025-09-01/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) primarily addressing housing by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Will Trump announce a national housing emergency in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Benjamin Netanyahu between November 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu again before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un all meet with Donald Trump between October 24, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump meets Xi, Putin, and Kim by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly claims that any of the moon landings were faked by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The claim must come directly from Trump via a verified social media account, official public statement, or during a recorded interview, speech, or rally. Indirect remarks, jokes, or quotes taken out of context will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used to confirm the legitimacy of such statements.

Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with Donald Trump by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Zelenskyy and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Nida Allam be the Democratic Nominee for NC-04?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the NC-01 House seat?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is formally charged or criminally indicted for insider trading related to a tariff policy announcement made during the second Trump administration between July 11 and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will anyone be charged for insider trading Trump tariff announcements?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) between October 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Trump declares another national emergency by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Trump says Fuck, Fucking, or Fucked 
- House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution
- Trump declares another national emergency

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Panick+in+the+White+House.pdf

Panick in the White House

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that explicitly eliminates federal income taxes for individuals earning less than $150,000 per year in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income, occupation, or other criteria) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal of federal income tax for individuals earning under $150,000. Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g., he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Trump removes income tax on individuals making <$150k?

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).

This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".  

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". 

The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump withdraw the U.S. from NATO in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration takes a formal action or makes an official announcement directing the deployment of National Guard troops to the listed city by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying announcement or action will count, regardless of if/when the deployment actually occurs, or if the deployment is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.

Qualifying actions include but are not limited to:
- A Presidential action (e.g., Executive Order, Presidential Memorandum) that directs or announces National Guard deployment to the listed city.
- An official White House/DoD/National Guard Bureau press release, fact sheet, or order explicitly stating that National Guard troops will be deployed to the listed city.
- A Secretary of Defense or NGB directive/order that calls up or assigns National Guard forces to the listed city, including under Title 32 (state control with federal funding) or Title 10 (federalized).
- An official federal announcement that specific state Guard units (including the listed city National Guard or out-of-state Guard) are being sent to the listed city.

Non-qualifying actions include:
- Informal announcements/social media posts which do not constitute a formal policy announcement 
- Ambiguous remarks, “we’re considering it,” broad statements like “ready to go anywhere,” or contingent plans without a clear directive to the listed city.
- Generic posture changes (e.g., standing up quick-reaction forces “nationwide”) that do not explicitly name the listed city as a deployment location.
- A state-only activation by the listed city's state Governor without any official Trump administration action or announcement about sending the Guard to the listed city.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump send the national guard to Los Angeles by December 31?

AmericaFest is scheduled to take place from December 18 - December 21, 2025, and JD Vance is scheduled to speak on December 21 at 11:07AM ET (https://tpusa.com/agenda/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the scheduled event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where JD Vance is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If prerecorded clips are aired where JD Vance is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about JD Vance's scheduled appearance at the TPUSA AmericaFest event on December 21, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such event is aired by December 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be video of the event.

Will JD Vance say "God" 3+ times at AmericaFest events on December 21?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

What will Trump Say during North Carolina town hall?

Border 20+
$27,553 Vol.
No

Border 30+ times
$32,408 Vol.
No

China 10+ times
$22,025 Vol.
No

Tax 10+ times
$21,385 Vol.
No

Million 10+ times
$29,561 Vol.
No

Kamala 40+ times
$19,727 Vol.
No

MAGA 3+ times
$45,891 Vol.
Yes

President Xi 2+ times
$5,378 Vol.
No

Disgrace 2+ times
$12,847 Vol.
No

Obamacare/Affordable Care Act
$12,240 Vol.
No

School Shooter
$6,699 Vol.
No

Vance
$60,856 Vol.
No

Debate
$21,685 Vol.
No

Tampon
$21,284 Vol.
No

Trans
$23,054 Vol.
No

Crypto/Bitcoin
$53,434 Vol.
No

Tax Queen
$24,204 Vol.
No

Illegal Alien
$46,736 Vol.
Yes

Ronald Reagan
$6,411 Vol.
No

Hezbollah
$18,899 Vol.
Yes

McDonald's
$25,170 Vol.
No

Market Context

What will Trump Say during North Carolina town hall?

Rules

What will Trump Say during North Carolina town hall?

Market Context

What will Trump Say during North Carolina town hall?

About

Related

What will Trump Say during North Carolina town hall?

Border 20+$27,553 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Border 30+ times$32,408 Vol.Nocircle xmark

China 10+ times$22,025 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tax 10+ times$21,385 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Million 10+ times$29,561 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Kamala 40+ times$19,727 Vol.Nocircle xmark

MAGA 3+ times$45,891 Vol.Yescircle check

President Xi 2+ times$5,378 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Disgrace 2+ times$12,847 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Obamacare/Affordable Care Act$12,240 Vol.Nocircle xmark

School Shooter$6,699 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Vance$60,856 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Debate$21,685 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tampon$21,284 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Trans$23,054 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Crypto/Bitcoin$53,434 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tax Queen$24,204 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Illegal Alien$46,736 Vol.Yescircle check

Ronald Reagan$6,411 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Hezbollah$18,899 Vol.Yescircle check

McDonald's$25,170 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

What will Trump Say during North Carolina town hall?

Rules

What will Trump Say during North Carolina town hall?

Market Context

What will Trump Say during North Carolina town hall?

About

Related

Border 20+
$27,553 Vol.
No

Border 30+ times
$32,408 Vol.
No

China 10+ times
$22,025 Vol.
No

Tax 10+ times
$21,385 Vol.
No

Million 10+ times
$29,561 Vol.
No

Kamala 40+ times
$19,727 Vol.
No

MAGA 3+ times
$45,891 Vol.
Yes

President Xi 2+ times
$5,378 Vol.
No

Disgrace 2+ times
$12,847 Vol.
No

Obamacare/Affordable Care Act
$12,240 Vol.
No

School Shooter
$6,699 Vol.
No

Vance
$60,856 Vol.
No

Debate
$21,685 Vol.
No

Tampon
$21,284 Vol.
No

Trans
$23,054 Vol.
No

Crypto/Bitcoin
$53,434 Vol.
No

Tax Queen
$24,204 Vol.
No

Illegal Alien
$46,736 Vol.
Yes

Ronald Reagan
$6,411 Vol.
No

Hezbollah
$18,899 Vol.
Yes

McDonald's
$25,170 Vol.
No