Recent hotter-than-expected February CPI and PPI data, showing core inflation at 3.2% year-over-year, have anchored trader consensus toward Powell signaling no March rate cut during his March 20 FOMC press conference, with markets implying over 95% odds of steady 5.25-5.50% fed funds rate. Strong jobs report and resilient consumer spending reinforce views of a restrictive policy stance persisting amid sticky disinflation progress. The updated dot plot may project fewer 2024 cuts than December's median three, emphasizing data dependence. Traders watch for hints on quantitative tightening taper or balance sheet runoff, with sentiment reflecting wisdom of crowds on delayed easing amid robust growth.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$922,699 Vol.
Inflation 40+ times
Yes
Inflation 50+ times
Yes
Inflation 60+ times
No
Percent 20+ times
Yes
Food / Energy 3+ times
Yes
Dollar 2+ times
Yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times
Yes
Fed / Federal Reserve 7+ times
No
Nothing 3+ times
No
Comment
No
Pandemic
Yes
Sorry / Pardon
Yes
Crypto / Bitcoin
No
Gold / Oil
Yes
Collect / Collected
No
Shutdown / Shut Down
No
Delayed / Delay
No
Successor
Yes
Affordability
No
Supreme Court
No
Not our job
No
Politics
No
Speculate / Speculation
Yes
Simulation
No
Distortion
No
Balance Sheet
No
Signal
No
Good Afternoon
Yes
Refund
No
China
No
Volatile
Yes
Recession
Yes
War
Yes
Housing
Yes
Iran
No
$922,699 Vol.
Inflation 40+ times
Yes
Inflation 50+ times
Yes
Inflation 60+ times
No
Percent 20+ times
Yes
Food / Energy 3+ times
Yes
Dollar 2+ times
Yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times
Yes
Fed / Federal Reserve 7+ times
No
Nothing 3+ times
No
Comment
No
Pandemic
Yes
Sorry / Pardon
Yes
Crypto / Bitcoin
No
Gold / Oil
Yes
Collect / Collected
No
Shutdown / Shut Down
No
Delayed / Delay
No
Successor
Yes
Affordability
No
Supreme Court
No
Not our job
No
Politics
No
Speculate / Speculation
Yes
Simulation
No
Distortion
No
Balance Sheet
No
Signal
No
Good Afternoon
Yes
Refund
No
China
No
Volatile
Yes
Recession
Yes
War
Yes
Housing
Yes
Iran
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.
Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If no such statement happens by March 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.
Market Opened: Mar 2, 2026, 12:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected February CPI and PPI data, showing core inflation at 3.2% year-over-year, have anchored trader consensus toward Powell signaling no March rate cut during his March 20 FOMC press conference, with markets implying over 95% odds of steady 5.25-5.50% fed funds rate. Strong jobs report and resilient consumer spending reinforce views of a restrictive policy stance persisting amid sticky disinflation progress. The updated dot plot may project fewer 2024 cuts than December's median three, emphasizing data dependence. Traders watch for hints on quantitative tightening taper or balance sheet runoff, with sentiment reflecting wisdom of crowds on delayed easing amid robust growth.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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