US strikes Iran by...?
$123,553,979 Vol.
January 30
$1,393,428 Vol.
5%
January 30
$1,393,428 Vol.
5%
January 31
$30,020,760 Vol.
12%
January 31
$30,020,760 Vol.
12%
February 1
$46,926 Vol.
17%
February 1
$46,926 Vol.
17%
February 2
$19,724 Vol.
19%
February 2
$19,724 Vol.
19%
February 3
$10,255 Vol.
21%
February 3
$10,255 Vol.
21%
February 4
$8,888 Vol.
22%
February 4
$8,888 Vol.
22%
February 5
$9,165 Vol.
26%
February 5
$9,165 Vol.
26%
February 6
$1,216,448 Vol.
28%
February 6
$1,216,448 Vol.
28%
February 13
$804,005 Vol.
46%
February 13
$804,005 Vol.
46%
February 28
$3,886,200 Vol.
59%
February 28
$3,886,200 Vol.
59%
March 31
$4,083,721 Vol.
64%
March 31
$4,083,721 Vol.
64%
June 30
$2,194,947 Vol.
70%
June 30
$2,194,947 Vol.
70%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 26, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Volume
$123,553,979End Date
Jun 30, 2026Created At
Jan 26, 2026, 10:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US strikes Iran by...?
$123,553,979 Vol.
January 30
$1,393,428 Vol.
5%
January 31
$30,020,760 Vol.
12%
February 1
$46,926 Vol.
17%
February 2
$19,724 Vol.
19%
February 3
$10,255 Vol.
21%
February 4
$8,888 Vol.
22%
February 5
$9,165 Vol.
26%
February 6
$1,216,448 Vol.
28%
February 13
$804,005 Vol.
46%
February 28
$3,886,200 Vol.
59%
March 31
$4,083,721 Vol.
64%
June 30
$2,194,947 Vol.
70%
About
Volume
$123,553,979End Date
Jun 30, 2026Created At
Jan 26, 2026, 10:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...
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