US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28 42%
February 1 5.6%
January 2026 5.1%
February 2 4.5%
$1,317,109 Vol.
$1,317,109 Vol.
January 2026
$66,691 Vol.
5%
January 2026
$66,691 Vol.
5%
February 1
$133,161 Vol.
6%
February 1
$133,161 Vol.
6%
February 2
$46,575 Vol.
5%
February 2
$46,575 Vol.
5%
February 3
$38,279 Vol.
4%
February 3
$38,279 Vol.
4%
February 4
$43,218 Vol.
3%
February 4
$43,218 Vol.
3%
February 5
$35,185 Vol.
2%
February 5
$35,185 Vol.
2%
February 6
$55,530 Vol.
4%
February 6
$55,530 Vol.
4%
February 7
$34,955 Vol.
3%
February 7
$34,955 Vol.
3%
February 8
$33,021 Vol.
3%
February 8
$33,021 Vol.
3%
February 9
$34,606 Vol.
2%
February 9
$34,606 Vol.
2%
February 10
$32,854 Vol.
2%
February 10
$32,854 Vol.
2%
February 11
$29,198 Vol.
1%
February 11
$29,198 Vol.
1%
February 12
$32,757 Vol.
2%
February 12
$32,757 Vol.
2%
February 13
$32,190 Vol.
2%
February 13
$32,190 Vol.
2%
February 14
$41,778 Vol.
2%
February 14
$41,778 Vol.
2%
February 15
$40,559 Vol.
1%
February 15
$40,559 Vol.
1%
February 16
$37,089 Vol.
1%
February 16
$37,089 Vol.
1%
February 17
$42,351 Vol.
1%
February 17
$42,351 Vol.
1%
February 18
$38,832 Vol.
1%
February 18
$38,832 Vol.
1%
February 19
$36,336 Vol.
1%
February 19
$36,336 Vol.
1%
February 20
$34,752 Vol.
1%
February 20
$34,752 Vol.
1%
February 21
$38,705 Vol.
2%
February 21
$38,705 Vol.
2%
February 22
$40,189 Vol.
1%
February 22
$40,189 Vol.
1%
February 23
$43,898 Vol.
1%
February 23
$43,898 Vol.
1%
February 24
$40,543 Vol.
1%
February 24
$40,543 Vol.
1%
February 25
$46,765 Vol.
1%
February 25
$46,765 Vol.
1%
February 26
$41,848 Vol.
1%
February 26
$41,848 Vol.
1%
February 27
$48,862 Vol.
1%
February 27
$48,862 Vol.
1%
February 28
$49,237 Vol.
4%
February 28
$49,237 Vol.
4%
No strike by February 28
$47,143 Vol.
42%
No strike by February 28
$47,143 Vol.
42%
Rules
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 27, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28 42%
February 1 5.6%
January 2026 5.1%
February 2 4.5%
$1,317,109 Vol.
$1,317,109 Vol.
January 2026
5%
February 1
6%
February 2
5%
February 3
4%
February 4
3%
February 5
2%
February 6
4%
February 7
3%
February 8
3%
February 9
2%
February 10
2%
February 11
1%
February 12
2%
February 13
2%
February 14
2%
February 15
1%
February 16
1%
February 17
1%
February 18
1%
February 19
1%
February 20
1%
February 21
2%
February 22
1%
February 23
1%
February 24
1%
February 25
1%
February 26
1%
February 27
1%
February 28
4%
No strike by February 28
42%
About
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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