Market icon
Politics·China

US-China trade deal in 2025?

Market icon
Politics·China

US-China trade deal in 2025?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$48,939 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$48,939 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between May 5, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between May 5, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.

Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$48,939
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
May 5, 2025, 4:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between May 5, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between May 5, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between May 5, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.

Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$48,939
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
May 5, 2025, 4:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between May 5, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"US-China trade deal in 2025?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US-China trade deal in 2025?" has generated $48.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US-China trade deal in 2025?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "US-China trade deal in 2025?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "US-China trade deal in 2025?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.