Name: U.S. announces resumption of direct flights to Russia before May?
Start: 2025-03-06T17:47:09.599137Z
End: 2025-04-30T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government, including the Department of Transportation, the Federal Aviation Administration, or the White House, announces the resumption of any direct commercial passenger flights from the United States to Russia by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any qualifying  policy officially announced within this market's timeframe will qualify, regardless of when the changes take effect.

The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

U.S. announces resumption of direct flights to Russia before May?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between December 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.

An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.

Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.

The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. 

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. 

Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 23, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Putin out as president of Russia
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Trump visits Russia
- Putin meets Zelensky
- Russia invades a NATO country

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/RU1.png 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/RU2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition

On December 16, 2025, President Donald Trump issued a proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States”, which updated and expanded partial and full suspensions of entry into the U.S. for nationals of various countries (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/restricting-and-limiting-the-entry-of-foreign-nationals-to-protect-the-security-of-the-united-states/). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, signs any bill into law, or if the Trump administration otherwise takes any formal action which is aimed at fully or partially suspending entry into the U.S. for nationals of any specific, additional country between market issuance and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying action must be aimed at restricting or banning entry into the United States for nationals of a particular country or countries. Blanket actions to restrict entry for individuals holding certain visa classes, or other generalized entry restrictions, which do not target a specific country or countries, will not count.

Additional country refers to any country not subject to a full or partial suspension of entry as of the December 16 proclamation.

Any qualifying government action taken within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the policy takes effect. However, announcements of future or planned bans which are not made official through government action will not qualify.

Any action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.

For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between December 4, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces strikes Moscow municipality, or any target within the municipality, between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.

Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine conducts at least one combat strike using U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) into Russian territory between November 20 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Tests used outside of combat will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. or Ukrainian government. Credible video or photo evidence, or reporting from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, BBC, Der Spiegel, DW, Le Monde, Sky News, Al Jazeera, The Kyiv Independent, and The Guardian may also be used.

Another ATACMS strike into Russian territory by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Afghan soil or any official Afghan embassy or consulate by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by United States military forces that impact Afghan ground territory or any official Afghan embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Afghan soil is hit by a U.S. missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Afghan territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by U.S. ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

U.S. strikes Afghanistan by Dec 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Syrian soil or any official Syrian embassy or consulate between this market's creation time and December 31, 2025 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Syrian ground territory or any official Syrian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Syrian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Syrian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US strike on Syria by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Bashar al-Assad has left Russia for any length of time between January 2, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Assad may have exited Russian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Russia for this market to resolve to "Yes".

If Assad exits Russia maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Assad left Russia, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Assad leaves Russia before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian armed forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Russian soil on the listed date Moscow Standard Time (MSK). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, “Russian ground territory” and “Russian soil” refer exclusively to internationally recognized Russian territory as defined by pre-2014 borders.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Russian ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Russia counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Russian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Ukraine strike in Russia on 25 November 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country named in President Donald Trump’s December 16, 2025, proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States” is fully removed from the list of countries subject to full or partial entry suspensions by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A country will be considered "removed" if any of the following occur:
- The President or Executive Branch formally revokes or modifies the proclamation to remove the country
- A federal court issues a final ruling or permanent injunction that blocks the restrictions for that country
- Congress passes legislation lifting the restrictions for that country
- A relevant federal agency (e.g., DHS, State Department) issues official guidance or updates visa policy indicating the country is no longer subject to restrictions
- Nationals of the country resume receiving visas under all categories that had been suspended, without case-by-case waivers

The following do not count as a country being removed:
- Temporary restraining orders or preliminary injunctions (unless later made permanent)
- Delays in enforcement, individual exemptions, or case-by-case waivers
- Diplomatic negotiations or public statements about potential future removal without official action
- Partial easing that still imposes core restrictions (e.g., resuming B-1/B-2 visas while immigrant visas remain banned)

Any official executive, legislative, or judicial action that prevents the proclamation from taking effect on January 1, 2026, or that pauses or ends the travel ban or restriction of a specified country will suffice. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official government communications.

Trump's travel ban removed by January 31?

If Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits Russia between September 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Zelenskyy physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Zelenskyy enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of Ukraine, official information from Zelenskyy, or information released by his verified social media accounts; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Russia in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between October 8, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.

Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following:

1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework.

2. An official U.S.–Ukraine announcement — defined as an official government-issued declaration, such as a joint statement, communiqué, or coordinated official releases, explicitly stating that Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework. The announcement must be issued through authorized government channels, including official written releases or formally published transcripts by the White House, State Department, Office of the President of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Verbal (including interviews or remarks during bilateral meetings) and social-media claims by either leader will not qualify unless later issued in an official written or published form by the respective government. The U.S. President or any US government official publicly stating that “an agreement has been reached,” without a corresponding formal release or communiqué, will not qualify; the same applies to statements by the Ukrainian President or Ukrainian officials.

3. A formally issued Ukrainian governmental action — including a presidential decree, Cabinet resolution, or National Security and Defense Council decision — explicitly stating that Ukraine agrees to the U.S.-endorsed framework. 

The primary resolution source will be official government documents, statements, decrees, and credible reporting confirming that Ukraine officially agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework under the standards above.


Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.

Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Russia coup attempt in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Russian strike on Poland by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolas Maduro visits the U.S. by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "visit" is defined as Maduro physically entering the terrestrial territory of the United States in a voluntary capacity. Whether or not Maduro enters US airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

Entering the United States requires physically entering sovereign U.S. territory, including all U.S. states and territories (e.g., Puerto Rico, Guam, U.S. Virgin Islands). Areas under U.S. control but not under U.S. sovereignty (e.g., Guantánamo Bay Naval Base) do not count. U.S. airspace, U.S. embassies/consulates abroad, and international zones do not constitute U.S. sovereign territory.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro visits the U.S. by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Air Force One aircraft is put into official service by the US Air Force between February 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Air Force One" refers to any aircraft built to replace one or both of the VC-25s presently used as the primary presidential aircrafts.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

New Air Force One in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine conducts at least one combat strike using a Tomahawk cruise missiles by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Tests used outside of combat will not qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. or Ukrainian government. Credible video or photo evidence, or reporting from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, BBC, Der Spiegel, DW, Le Monde, Sky News, Al Jazeera, The Kyiv Independent and The Guardian may also be used. 

Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping visits the U.S. by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Xi visit the US by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. announces that they are occupying/using Bagram air base in Afghanistan for military or intelligence operations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements form the U.S government and military.

US announces return to Bagram base in Afghanistan by December 31?

Amid rumors of a U.S.-drafted peace framework, a so-called 28-point proposal to end the war with Russia, Zelenskiy is scheduled to meet U.S. Army officials in Kyiv on November 20. More details can be found here: https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/ukraine-peace-plan-trump-russia-witkoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases a new framework to end the war between Ukraine and Russia by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying document must be framed as a new peace proposal outlining specific conditions, for example, regarding reparations, territorial agreements, demilitarization, sanctions, etc.

A mere announcement that such a document exists or will be released will not suffice.

To qualify, the Executive Branch must itself publish the document or its content to the public. Reports that a qualifying document was provided privately, for example, to Ukrainian officials, will not suffice. 

Partial releases, such as a written summary or outline, will count as long as they are framed as a peace proposal outlining specific conditions.

Leaks or unverified/unofficial information will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an agreement on an official buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "buffer zone" is defined as a neutral or otherwise militarily restricted area that lies between the territories of Russia and Ukraine and is intended to reduce or manage conflict between them.

A qualifying buffer zone does not need to cover a minimum geographic area, nor require the withdrawal of all categories of weapons or personnel. It is sufficient that the agreement explicitly demonstrates mutual intent to suspend offensive military action within the designated zone, for example, by stipulating the withdrawal of heavy artillery, armored vehicles, etc.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the buffer zone is established formally by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, announcements of a partial implementation, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.

A mutual agreement on a buffer zone will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of potential subsequent violations of such an agreement.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a broad consensus of credible media reporting stating an official agreement regarding a buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf

Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. 

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.

An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.

An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.

The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.


Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration officially announces that they will be sending US troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must be part of a formal agreement between the United States and another country or international organization or otherwise indicative of a formalized policy.

Announcement which are statements of intent, contingent, or otherwise are not indicative of a formalized policy will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump agrees to send U.S. peacekeeping force to Ukraine?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

U.S. announces resumption of direct flights to Russia before May?

Market Context

U.S. announces resumption of direct flights to Russia before May?

Rules

U.S. announces resumption of direct flights to Russia before May?

Market Context

U.S. announces resumption of direct flights to Russia before May?

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