Ongoing hostilities without a ceasefire continue to block any viable Ukraine peace referendum before 2027, as legal requirements demand sustained security, verifiable voter access, and parliamentary or popular initiative processes that cannot proceed under current martial law conditions. Recent U.S. envoy meetings with Russian and Ukrainian leaders in early September 2026 revived trilateral contact prospects after Russian parliamentary elections, yet persistent gaps over territorial control in Donbas and security guarantees have prevented substantive progress or agreements. Traders assign 97.5% probability to “No” based on these entrenched diplomatic and procedural realities, though an unexpected rapid ceasefire or breakthrough in late-2026 talks could theoretically compress timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$67,484 Vol.
$67,484 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$67,484 Vol.
$67,484 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing hostilities without a ceasefire continue to block any viable Ukraine peace referendum before 2027, as legal requirements demand sustained security, verifiable voter access, and parliamentary or popular initiative processes that cannot proceed under current martial law conditions. Recent U.S. envoy meetings with Russian and Ukrainian leaders in early September 2026 revived trilateral contact prospects after Russian parliamentary elections, yet persistent gaps over territorial control in Donbas and security guarantees have prevented substantive progress or agreements. Traders assign 97.5% probability to “No” based on these entrenched diplomatic and procedural realities, though an unexpected rapid ceasefire or breakthrough in late-2026 talks could theoretically compress timelines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ET
Volume
$67,484End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing hostilities without a ceasefire continue to block any viable Ukraine peace referendum before 2027, as legal requirements demand sustained security, verifiable voter access, and parliamentary or popular initiative processes that cannot proceed under current martial law conditions. Recent U.S. envoy meetings with Russian and Ukrainian leaders in early September 2026 revived trilateral contact prospects after Russian parliamentary elections, yet persistent gaps over territorial control in Donbas and security guarantees have prevented substantive progress or agreements. Traders assign 97.5% probability to “No” based on these entrenched diplomatic and procedural realities, though an unexpected rapid ceasefire or breakthrough in late-2026 talks could theoretically compress timelines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$67,484End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing hostilities without a ceasefire continue to block any viable Ukraine peace referendum before 2027, as legal requirements demand sustained security, verifiable voter access, and parliamentary or popular initiative processes that cannot proceed under current martial law conditions. Recent U.S. envoy meetings with Russian and Ukrainian leaders in early September 2026 revived trilateral contact prospects after Russian parliamentary elections, yet persistent gaps over territorial control in Donbas and security guarantees have prevented substantive progress or agreements. Traders assign 97.5% probability to “No” based on these entrenched diplomatic and procedural realities, though an unexpected rapid ceasefire or breakthrough in late-2026 talks could theoretically compress timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions