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Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?

Market icon

Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$7,079,947 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$7,079,947 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States and Ukraine agree to any deal between February 2 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that explicitly involves Ukrainian rare earth elements. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This includes, but is not limited to, agreements related to the exchange of Ukrainian rare earths for U.S. aid (military or civilian), partnerships involving rare earth metals, future rights to rare earth resources, mining rights, or any other form of cooperation related to rare earth elements.

An announcement of a deal will qualify regardless of if/when the deal is enacted.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US and Ukraine.
Volume
$7,079,947
End Date
Mar 31, 2025
Market Opened
Feb 3, 2025, 3:15 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States and Ukraine agree to any deal between February 2 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that explicitly involves Ukrainian rare earth elements. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This includes, but is not limited to, agreements related to the exchange of Ukrainian rare earths for U.S. aid (military or civilian), partnerships involving rare earth metals, future rights to rare earth resources, mining rights, or any other form of cooperation related to rare earth elements. An announcement of a deal will qualify regardless of if/when the deal is enacted. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US and Ukraine.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States and Ukraine agree to any deal between February 2 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that explicitly involves Ukrainian rare earth elements. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This includes, but is not limited to, agreements related to the exchange of Ukrainian rare earths for U.S. aid (military or civilian), partnerships involving rare earth metals, future rights to rare earth resources, mining rights, or any other form of cooperation related to rare earth elements.

An announcement of a deal will qualify regardless of if/when the deal is enacted.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US and Ukraine.
Volume
$7,079,947
End Date
Mar 31, 2025
Market Opened
Feb 3, 2025, 3:15 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States and Ukraine agree to any deal between February 2 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that explicitly involves Ukrainian rare earth elements. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This includes, but is not limited to, agreements related to the exchange of Ukrainian rare earths for U.S. aid (military or civilian), partnerships involving rare earth metals, future rights to rare earth resources, mining rights, or any other form of cooperation related to rare earth elements. An announcement of a deal will qualify regardless of if/when the deal is enacted. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US and Ukraine.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?" has generated $7.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 3, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.