Trader consensus prices "No" at 94.5% implied probability for Donald Trump remaining President beyond June 30, 2026, reflecting Republican majorities in the House and Senate that have stalled Democratic-led impeachment resolutions like H.Res. 353 and H.Res. 939, introduced over issues including Iran military actions but lacking votes for advancement. No credible resignation signals from Trump or his administration have emerged, despite partisan speculation such as James Carville's post-midterm predictions irrelevant to this timeline. Recent unconfirmed health rumors of hospitalization amid Operation Epic Fury in Iran were swiftly denied by the White House, with Trump actively issuing executive actions on immigration and college sports. While scandals or 25th Amendment invocation could shift odds, structural barriers and ongoing policy engagements underpin the strong positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$2,100,320 Vol.
$2,100,320 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$2,100,320 Vol.
$2,100,320 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 94.5% implied probability for Donald Trump remaining President beyond June 30, 2026, reflecting Republican majorities in the House and Senate that have stalled Democratic-led impeachment resolutions like H.Res. 353 and H.Res. 939, introduced over issues including Iran military actions but lacking votes for advancement. No credible resignation signals from Trump or his administration have emerged, despite partisan speculation such as James Carville's post-midterm predictions irrelevant to this timeline. Recent unconfirmed health rumors of hospitalization amid Operation Epic Fury in Iran were swiftly denied by the White House, with Trump actively issuing executive actions on immigration and college sports. While scandals or 25th Amendment invocation could shift odds, structural barriers and ongoing policy engagements underpin the strong positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ET
Volume
$2,100,320End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 94.5% implied probability for Donald Trump remaining President beyond June 30, 2026, reflecting Republican majorities in the House and Senate that have stalled Democratic-led impeachment resolutions like H.Res. 353 and H.Res. 939, introduced over issues including Iran military actions but lacking votes for advancement. No credible resignation signals from Trump or his administration have emerged, despite partisan speculation such as James Carville's post-midterm predictions irrelevant to this timeline. Recent unconfirmed health rumors of hospitalization amid Operation Epic Fury in Iran were swiftly denied by the White House, with Trump actively issuing executive actions on immigration and college sports. While scandals or 25th Amendment invocation could shift odds, structural barriers and ongoing policy engagements underpin the strong positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,100,320End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 94.5% implied probability for Donald Trump remaining President beyond June 30, 2026, reflecting Republican majorities in the House and Senate that have stalled Democratic-led impeachment resolutions like H.Res. 353 and H.Res. 939, introduced over issues including Iran military actions but lacking votes for advancement. No credible resignation signals from Trump or his administration have emerged, despite partisan speculation such as James Carville's post-midterm predictions irrelevant to this timeline. Recent unconfirmed health rumors of hospitalization amid Operation Epic Fury in Iran were swiftly denied by the White House, with Trump actively issuing executive actions on immigration and college sports. While scandals or 25th Amendment invocation could shift odds, structural barriers and ongoing policy engagements underpin the strong positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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