Trader consensus prices a near-certain 99.1% probability that President Trump remains in office through April 30, driven by the absence of advancing impeachment proceedings—despite H.Res. 939 introduction—and Republican majorities in Congress blocking House passage or Senate conviction requiring a two-thirds supermajority. Recent calls for 25th Amendment invocation, including former Trump attorney Ty Cobb's remarks labeling him "insane" amid Iran war escalations, have gained no traction from the cabinet or GOP leadership. Trump's active role in military actions against Iran and public addresses reinforces stability. Realistic shifts could involve a sudden health crisis, explosive scandal sparking bipartisan action, or improbable voluntary resignation, though structural barriers remain formidable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$416,052 Vol.
$416,052 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$416,052 Vol.
$416,052 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a near-certain 99.1% probability that President Trump remains in office through April 30, driven by the absence of advancing impeachment proceedings—despite H.Res. 939 introduction—and Republican majorities in Congress blocking House passage or Senate conviction requiring a two-thirds supermajority. Recent calls for 25th Amendment invocation, including former Trump attorney Ty Cobb's remarks labeling him "insane" amid Iran war escalations, have gained no traction from the cabinet or GOP leadership. Trump's active role in military actions against Iran and public addresses reinforces stability. Realistic shifts could involve a sudden health crisis, explosive scandal sparking bipartisan action, or improbable voluntary resignation, though structural barriers remain formidable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Volume
$416,052End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a near-certain 99.1% probability that President Trump remains in office through April 30, driven by the absence of advancing impeachment proceedings—despite H.Res. 939 introduction—and Republican majorities in Congress blocking House passage or Senate conviction requiring a two-thirds supermajority. Recent calls for 25th Amendment invocation, including former Trump attorney Ty Cobb's remarks labeling him "insane" amid Iran war escalations, have gained no traction from the cabinet or GOP leadership. Trump's active role in military actions against Iran and public addresses reinforces stability. Realistic shifts could involve a sudden health crisis, explosive scandal sparking bipartisan action, or improbable voluntary resignation, though structural barriers remain formidable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$416,228End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a near-certain 99.1% probability that President Trump remains in office through April 30, driven by the absence of advancing impeachment proceedings—despite H.Res. 939 introduction—and Republican majorities in Congress blocking House passage or Senate conviction requiring a two-thirds supermajority. Recent calls for 25th Amendment invocation, including former Trump attorney Ty Cobb's remarks labeling him "insane" amid Iran war escalations, have gained no traction from the cabinet or GOP leadership. Trump's active role in military actions against Iran and public addresses reinforces stability. Realistic shifts could involve a sudden health crisis, explosive scandal sparking bipartisan action, or improbable voluntary resignation, though structural barriers remain formidable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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