President Trump's strong position in the Polymarket prediction market, with "No" at 98.2% implied probability of him remaining in office through April 30, reflects trader consensus on formidable constitutional barriers to early removal. No impeachment articles have advanced in the House, lacking even a simple majority amid Republican control, while Senate conviction requires a two-thirds supermajority—a threshold unmet in historical attempts against presidents. The past 30 days show no major scandals, health disclosures, or 25th Amendment invocations, with routine executive actions dominating recent White House news. Realistic shifts could arise from unforeseen events like a sudden medical emergency, bipartisan impeachment push, or voluntary resignation, though each faces steep procedural and political hurdles in the tight three-week window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,698,352 Vol.
$1,698,352 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$1,698,352 Vol.
$1,698,352 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's strong position in the Polymarket prediction market, with "No" at 98.2% implied probability of him remaining in office through April 30, reflects trader consensus on formidable constitutional barriers to early removal. No impeachment articles have advanced in the House, lacking even a simple majority amid Republican control, while Senate conviction requires a two-thirds supermajority—a threshold unmet in historical attempts against presidents. The past 30 days show no major scandals, health disclosures, or 25th Amendment invocations, with routine executive actions dominating recent White House news. Realistic shifts could arise from unforeseen events like a sudden medical emergency, bipartisan impeachment push, or voluntary resignation, though each faces steep procedural and political hurdles in the tight three-week window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Volume
$1,698,352End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's strong position in the Polymarket prediction market, with "No" at 98.2% implied probability of him remaining in office through April 30, reflects trader consensus on formidable constitutional barriers to early removal. No impeachment articles have advanced in the House, lacking even a simple majority amid Republican control, while Senate conviction requires a two-thirds supermajority—a threshold unmet in historical attempts against presidents. The past 30 days show no major scandals, health disclosures, or 25th Amendment invocations, with routine executive actions dominating recent White House news. Realistic shifts could arise from unforeseen events like a sudden medical emergency, bipartisan impeachment push, or voluntary resignation, though each faces steep procedural and political hurdles in the tight three-week window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,699,499End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's strong position in the Polymarket prediction market, with "No" at 98.2% implied probability of him remaining in office through April 30, reflects trader consensus on formidable constitutional barriers to early removal. No impeachment articles have advanced in the House, lacking even a simple majority amid Republican control, while Senate conviction requires a two-thirds supermajority—a threshold unmet in historical attempts against presidents. The past 30 days show no major scandals, health disclosures, or 25th Amendment invocations, with routine executive actions dominating recent White House news. Realistic shifts could arise from unforeseen events like a sudden medical emergency, bipartisan impeachment push, or voluntary resignation, though each faces steep procedural and political hurdles in the tight three-week window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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