Sweden’s centre-left bloc, anchored by the Social Democrats, secured a projected one-seat majority in the September 13 parliamentary election, according to early counts and exit polls from SVT and the Election Authority. The Social Democrats emerged as the largest party with roughly 28 percent support, while the Sweden Democrats saw their vote share decline notably from 2022 levels amid stronger showings by the Moderates and smaller parties. This outcome reflects voter preferences that preserved the traditional bloc divide and limited the Sweden Democrats’ influence in government formation. Trader consensus at near-certainty levels for a Social Democrat-led outcome aligns with these preliminary seat allocations, though final certified results—including overseas ballots—remain pending and could alter the narrow margin. Complex coalition talks could still influence the ultimate government composition even if the seat projection holds.