Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap of $1.5T–2.0T at 50.5% implied probability, driven by December 2025's tender offer valuing the company at $800 billion—nearly doubling prior estimates—and Elon Musk's confirmation of 2026 public listing plans. Starlink's rapid expansion, with over 10,000 satellites deployed and projected 2026 revenue nearing $19 billion from surging broadband subscribers, underpins this positioning amid reusable rocket dominance and Mars ambitions. Late March reports of imminent S-1 filings and April investor briefings signal momentum toward a potential mid-year debut raising up to $75 billion, though market volatility or regulatory hurdles could temper the upper bins like 2.0T–2.5T at 23.5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,542,827 Vol.
$1,542,827 Vol.
<1.0T
3%
1.0T-1.5T
10%
1.5T-2.0T
51%
2.0T-2.5T
24%
2.5T-3.0T
6%
3.0T-3.5T
3%
3.5T+
3%
No IPO before 2028
3%
$1,542,827 Vol.
$1,542,827 Vol.
<1.0T
$15,515 Vol.
3%
1.0T-1.5T
$11,346 Vol.
10%
1.5T-2.0T
$16,723 Vol.
51%
2.0T-2.5T
$17,910 Vol.
24%
2.5T-3.0T
$776,401 Vol.
6%
3.0T-3.5T
$434,051 Vol.
3%
3.5T+
$32,721 Vol.
3%
No IPO before 2028
$238,160 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap of $1.5T–2.0T at 50.5% implied probability, driven by December 2025's tender offer valuing the company at $800 billion—nearly doubling prior estimates—and Elon Musk's confirmation of 2026 public listing plans. Starlink's rapid expansion, with over 10,000 satellites deployed and projected 2026 revenue nearing $19 billion from surging broadband subscribers, underpins this positioning amid reusable rocket dominance and Mars ambitions. Late March reports of imminent S-1 filings and April investor briefings signal momentum toward a potential mid-year debut raising up to $75 billion, though market volatility or regulatory hurdles could temper the upper bins like 2.0T–2.5T at 23.5%.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
Volume
$1,542,827Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap of $1.5T–2.0T at 50.5% implied probability, driven by December 2025's tender offer valuing the company at $800 billion—nearly doubling prior estimates—and Elon Musk's confirmation of 2026 public listing plans. Starlink's rapid expansion, with over 10,000 satellites deployed and projected 2026 revenue nearing $19 billion from surging broadband subscribers, underpins this positioning amid reusable rocket dominance and Mars ambitions. Late March reports of imminent S-1 filings and April investor briefings signal momentum toward a potential mid-year debut raising up to $75 billion, though market volatility or regulatory hurdles could temper the upper bins like 2.0T–2.5T at 23.5%.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,542,827Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap of $1.5T–2.0T at 50.5% implied probability, driven by December 2025's tender offer valuing the company at $800 billion—nearly doubling prior estimates—and Elon Musk's confirmation of 2026 public listing plans. Starlink's rapid expansion, with over 10,000 satellites deployed and projected 2026 revenue nearing $19 billion from surging broadband subscribers, underpins this positioning amid reusable rocket dominance and Mars ambitions. Late March reports of imminent S-1 filings and April investor briefings signal momentum toward a potential mid-year debut raising up to $75 billion, though market volatility or regulatory hurdles could temper the upper bins like 2.0T–2.5T at 23.5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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