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Politics·Trump

Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?

Market icon
Politics·Trump

Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?

7% chance
Polymarket
NEW
7% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Gallego ceases to be United States Senator from Arizona for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Gallego's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Gallego and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent unsubstantiated misconduct allegations against Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), raised by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) and linked to former Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation over sexual assault claims, have fueled speculation but failed to shift trader consensus significantly. Gallego, serving his first term until 2031 after winning Arizona's 2024 Senate race, swiftly denied involvement, distanced himself from his former close ally Swalwell, and dismissed the accusations as a "right-wing conspiracy." With no formal Senate Ethics Committee probe announced, no charges filed, and expulsion requiring a two-thirds vote—a rarity absent criminal conviction—traders price a 93.5% implied probability he remains in office past May 31, viewing the claims as partisan noise unlikely to prompt resignation or removal in weeks.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Gallego ceases to be United States Senator from Arizona for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Gallego's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Gallego and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,474
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Gallego ceases to be United States Senator from Arizona for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Gallego's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Gallego and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Gallego ceases to be United States Senator from Arizona for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Gallego's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Gallego and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent unsubstantiated misconduct allegations against Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), raised by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) and linked to former Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation over sexual assault claims, have fueled speculation but failed to shift trader consensus significantly. Gallego, serving his first term until 2031 after winning Arizona's 2024 Senate race, swiftly denied involvement, distanced himself from his former close ally Swalwell, and dismissed the accusations as a "right-wing conspiracy." With no formal Senate Ethics Committee probe announced, no charges filed, and expulsion requiring a two-thirds vote—a rarity absent criminal conviction—traders price a 93.5% implied probability he remains in office past May 31, viewing the claims as partisan noise unlikely to prompt resignation or removal in weeks.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Gallego ceases to be United States Senator from Arizona for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Gallego's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Gallego and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,474
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Gallego ceases to be United States Senator from Arizona for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Gallego's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Gallego and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 7% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 7¢, the market collectively assigns a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?" is 7% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.