Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 61.5% implied probability, driven by the company's fresh closure of a record $122 billion funding round—Silicon Valley's largest ever—at an $852 billion pre-money valuation, led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank with $3 billion from retail investors. This influx reduces immediate public market pressure, amid ongoing profitability challenges (projected $14 billion loss in 2026) and a history of abandoned products. Preparations like hiring Cooley and Wachtell for IPO counsel and SoftBank's $40 billion loan signal potential late-2026 listing targeting $1 trillion-plus, positioning high-valuation outcomes (1.25T–1.5T at 12.5%) as secondary bets if regulatory and strategic hurdles clear. Watch for S-1 filing or Q2 earnings previews as key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNo IPO by December 31, 2026 62%
1.25T–1.5T 12.4%
1.5T+ 6.2%
1T–1.25T 5.5%
$1,550,532 Vol.
$1,550,532 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<500B
3%
500–750B
4%
750B–1T
5%
1T–1.25T
6%
1.25T–1.5T
12%
1.5T+
6%
No IPO by December 31, 2026
62%
No IPO by December 31, 2026 62%
1.25T–1.5T 12.4%
1.5T+ 6.2%
1T–1.25T 5.5%
$1,550,532 Vol.
$1,550,532 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<500B
$257,333 Vol.
3%
500–750B
$139,166 Vol.
4%
750B–1T
$129,864 Vol.
5%
1T–1.25T
$172,280 Vol.
6%
1.25T–1.5T
$487,306 Vol.
12%
1.5T+
$92,146 Vol.
6%
No IPO by December 31, 2026
$272,437 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 61.5% implied probability, driven by the company's fresh closure of a record $122 billion funding round—Silicon Valley's largest ever—at an $852 billion pre-money valuation, led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank with $3 billion from retail investors. This influx reduces immediate public market pressure, amid ongoing profitability challenges (projected $14 billion loss in 2026) and a history of abandoned products. Preparations like hiring Cooley and Wachtell for IPO counsel and SoftBank's $40 billion loan signal potential late-2026 listing targeting $1 trillion-plus, positioning high-valuation outcomes (1.25T–1.5T at 12.5%) as secondary bets if regulatory and strategic hurdles clear. Watch for S-1 filing or Q2 earnings previews as key catalysts.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,550,532End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 61.5% implied probability, driven by the company's fresh closure of a record $122 billion funding round—Silicon Valley's largest ever—at an $852 billion pre-money valuation, led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank with $3 billion from retail investors. This influx reduces immediate public market pressure, amid ongoing profitability challenges (projected $14 billion loss in 2026) and a history of abandoned products. Preparations like hiring Cooley and Wachtell for IPO counsel and SoftBank's $40 billion loan signal potential late-2026 listing targeting $1 trillion-plus, positioning high-valuation outcomes (1.25T–1.5T at 12.5%) as secondary bets if regulatory and strategic hurdles clear. Watch for S-1 filing or Q2 earnings previews as key catalysts.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,550,532End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 61.5% implied probability, driven by the company's fresh closure of a record $122 billion funding round—Silicon Valley's largest ever—at an $852 billion pre-money valuation, led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank with $3 billion from retail investors. This influx reduces immediate public market pressure, amid ongoing profitability challenges (projected $14 billion loss in 2026) and a history of abandoned products. Preparations like hiring Cooley and Wachtell for IPO counsel and SoftBank's $40 billion loan signal potential late-2026 listing targeting $1 trillion-plus, positioning high-valuation outcomes (1.25T–1.5T at 12.5%) as secondary bets if regulatory and strategic hurdles clear. Watch for S-1 filing or Q2 earnings previews as key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions