Trader consensus on Polymarket prices OpenAI's potential IPO closing market cap above 750 billion at 36.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of no IPO by December 31, 2027 at 30%, reflecting explosive revenue growth—annualized at over $3.6 billion from ChatGPT subscriptions and API usage—juxtaposed against structural hurdles like its capped-profit model and Microsoft equity constraints. Recent SoftBank-led funding talks targeting a $150 billion post-money valuation signal aggressive scaling via massive AI infrastructure capex, yet CEO Sam Altman's confirmation of no 2025 public listing and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety amplify "No IPO" sentiment. Key differentiators include OpenAI's lead in large language models over rivals like Anthropic, with upcoming funding closure and enterprise adoption metrics as pivotal catalysts that could tip odds toward trillion-dollar bins or prolonged private status.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNo IPO by December 31, 2027 30%
1.5T+ 27%
500–750B 20%
1T–1.25T 17%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
7%
500–750B
20%
750B–1T
37%
1T–1.25T
17%
1.25T–1.5T
16%
1.5T+
27%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
30%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 30%
1.5T+ 27%
500–750B 20%
1T–1.25T 17%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$0 Vol.
7%
500–750B
$0 Vol.
20%
750B–1T
$37 Vol.
37%
1T–1.25T
$0 Vol.
17%
1.25T–1.5T
$105 Vol.
16%
1.5T+
$0 Vol.
27%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$0 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices OpenAI's potential IPO closing market cap above 750 billion at 36.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of no IPO by December 31, 2027 at 30%, reflecting explosive revenue growth—annualized at over $3.6 billion from ChatGPT subscriptions and API usage—juxtaposed against structural hurdles like its capped-profit model and Microsoft equity constraints. Recent SoftBank-led funding talks targeting a $150 billion post-money valuation signal aggressive scaling via massive AI infrastructure capex, yet CEO Sam Altman's confirmation of no 2025 public listing and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety amplify "No IPO" sentiment. Key differentiators include OpenAI's lead in large language models over rivals like Anthropic, with upcoming funding closure and enterprise adoption metrics as pivotal catalysts that could tip odds toward trillion-dollar bins or prolonged private status.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$142End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices OpenAI's potential IPO closing market cap above 750 billion at 36.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of no IPO by December 31, 2027 at 30%, reflecting explosive revenue growth—annualized at over $3.6 billion from ChatGPT subscriptions and API usage—juxtaposed against structural hurdles like its capped-profit model and Microsoft equity constraints. Recent SoftBank-led funding talks targeting a $150 billion post-money valuation signal aggressive scaling via massive AI infrastructure capex, yet CEO Sam Altman's confirmation of no 2025 public listing and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety amplify "No IPO" sentiment. Key differentiators include OpenAI's lead in large language models over rivals like Anthropic, with upcoming funding closure and enterprise adoption metrics as pivotal catalysts that could tip odds toward trillion-dollar bins or prolonged private status.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$142End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices OpenAI's potential IPO closing market cap above 750 billion at 36.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of no IPO by December 31, 2027 at 30%, reflecting explosive revenue growth—annualized at over $3.6 billion from ChatGPT subscriptions and API usage—juxtaposed against structural hurdles like its capped-profit model and Microsoft equity constraints. Recent SoftBank-led funding talks targeting a $150 billion post-money valuation signal aggressive scaling via massive AI infrastructure capex, yet CEO Sam Altman's confirmation of no 2025 public listing and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety amplify "No IPO" sentiment. Key differentiators include OpenAI's lead in large language models over rivals like Anthropic, with upcoming funding closure and enterprise adoption metrics as pivotal catalysts that could tip odds toward trillion-dollar bins or prolonged private status.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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