Name: # of jobs Elon and DOGE cut in first 6 months?
Start: 2024-12-20T00:11:35.409034Z
End: 2025-07-03T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the number of jobs cut by Elon Musk and the impact of Dogecoin in the first six months of their respective actions.

This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001) 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees decreases by less than 25,000 between the December 2024 report and the June 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the June 2025 value. 

The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial June 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on July 3, 2025. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. 

The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.

<25k

This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001) 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees decreases by between 25,000 (inclusive) and 50,000 (exclusive) between the December 2024 report and the June 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the June 2025 value. 

The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial June 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on July 3, 2025. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. 

The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.

25-50k

This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001) 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees decreases by between 50,000 (inclusive) and 100,000 (exclusive) between the December 2024 report and the June 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the June 2025 value. 

The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial June 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on July 3, 2025. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. 

The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.

50-100k

This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001) 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees decreases by between 100,000 (inclusive) and 200,000 (exclusive) between the December 2024 report and the June 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the June 2025 value. 

The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial June 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on July 3, 2025. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. 

The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.

100-200k

This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001) 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees decreases by 200,000 or more between the December 2024 report and the June 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the June 2025 value. 

The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial June 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on July 3, 2025. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. 

The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.

200k+

# of jobs Elon and DOGE cut in first 6 months?

DOGE and Elon Musk implemented significant budget cuts across various sectors, including $5.1 billion in defense spending and layoffs at the IRS and FDA, raising concerns about impacts on essential services like tax audits and drug reviews. Despite promises of substantial savings, DOGE is falling short of its goals, achieving only 15% of projected cuts, with progress overstated due to errors and guesswork.

IRS and FDA Cuts

Next time some leftist tries to demean DOGE reductions in fraud, waste and abuse by offering up a hostage puppy example, here is a very effective retort:

"That small program you mentioned was a very tiny part of cuts of billions of dollars of funding to [FILL IN THE BLANK

Is Congress totally tone deaf to the conservative voter mandate to reign in the fiscal insanity?
A 2.6 trillion annualized rate of extend pretend when DOGE cuts so far are $150 Billion is
a math 🧮 equation that leads to severe financial consequences .
Look no further than the https://t.co/eVcN7S3TBb

💪 ⁦@SecDef⁩ ⁦@PeteHegseth⁩ announces $5.1 billion in DOGE cuts to defense spending https://t.co/sxG0JUQCia

NEW: @doge is falling far short of its goals -- Musk said this week it would achieve just 15% of the cuts it promised next year.

But even *that* over-states its progress, b/c the group's numbers are inflated by billions of errors &amp; guesswork.

https://t.co/mjV998yOIn

🇺🇸 The US SSA is moving all public communications to X, following significant workforce cuts and a push for efficiency by Elon Musk's DOGE.
https://t.co/0KZXPvBLFn

I knew DOGE was useless the minute they trotted Speaker Johnson out as a spokesperson. So much for $2 trillion in cuts. It was a nice fantasy while it lasted. https://t.co/1Hfs8zUvnN

Crucial FDA drug reviews expected to be slowed by job cuts https://t.co/SMeK5eL8Ta

Thousands of IRS employees have lost their jobs due to DOGE’s spending cuts, and the layoffs could affect essential agency functions during tax season.
https://t.co/Dh8wjM5nLL

Thousands of IRS employees have lost their jobs as part of DOGE’s spending cuts, and the layoffs could affect essential agency functions during tax season. https://t.co/cCzC2KRkP2

Mississippi lawmakers have chance in special session to ease concerns caused by DOGE cuts 
https://t.co/j4LIW4XhMC

$FMCC - Freddie Mac: DOGE Cuts Are Real. https://t.co/1BNAXWAS7F #business #trading #stockmarket

The Aransas National Wildlife Refuge is at risk of DOGE budget cuts. A local group of volunteers is stepping up to advocate for the refuge. https://t.co/gaGP5OSSB8

Elon and Vivek's DOGE initiative proposes massive federal workforce and spending cuts, stirring controversy and predictions of economic hardship with unemployment potentially rising to 6%. Critics and analysts warn of a weakened economy, potential recessionary feelings, and significant impacts on Main Street Americans as Virginia Democrats and GOP leaders clash over the policy's implications.

Economy Weakness

Musk and Ramaswamy's DOGE—A Cocktail of Corruption, Illegality, and Harm. "Musk acknowledged during a town hall event before the election that the huge cuts he is looking for will create "hardship" to "Main Street Americans."

https://t.co/IdjhbjI7Fr https://t.co/lOKJJBgWXm

2025 market predictions:

1: Bitcoin peaks between $120-140k then heads back to $70k in the spring

2: DOGE cuts government jobs and government contractors and unemployment goes up to 6%

3: Nasdaq declines 25% from the peak likely in the summer

4: Quantum/AI bubble pops in Q1

When you pair this with 2trn of spending cuts from DOGE (if that’s possible), you have a pretty weak economy (although I think the near term pain is unfortunately necessary): https://t.co/sjCo8Jfed7

Add in a few million being built. The "Feeling" of a Recession has people cautious. Everyone knows someone laidoff.  Add Trump DOGE staff cuts of a few more million. People even less likely to buy. Bottom in 18-24 months. Labour "lags" recovery... https://t.co/ymihcSCAn5

Virginia Democrats 'asking the wrong question' amid outrage over DOGE federal workforce cuts, GOP leader says https://t.co/CVcSmDc83i #FoxNews

Virginia Democrats 'asking the wrong question' amid outrage over DOGE federal workforce cuts, GOP leader says https://t.co/umA2HUIoll #FoxNews

DOGE is driving significant federal job cuts, sparking widespread debate and support from figures like Senator Rick Scott, while facing criticism for potential impacts on healthcare and national security. President Donald Trump describes the economic situation as a 'period of transition,' deflecting recession concerns amid market turmoil caused by these cuts and tariff policies.

A 'Period of Transition'

🚨Move forward with this CR then deliver real budget cuts under DOGE !!!🚨 https://t.co/rH9H3iZN8F

🚨 #BREAKING: CFPB, who has been desperately fighting DOGE’s cuts, just ORDERED ME to stop taking videos of the sign removal from their DC office from a public sidewalk

Per this security guard, a higher-up at Pocahontas’s brainchild directed me to STOP recording the building https://t.co/qEbQMpmNBb

Hypocrite Rick Scott who claimed he was the “jobs guy” now supports massive job cuts through DOGE. Video: Rick Scott defends Elon Musk and DOGE’s recommendations for job cuts | CNN Politics https://t.co/MobOA1zpSY

So the way to stop Schumer is to extend the government-funding deal approved by Biden/Schumer/Johnson?

Why is a government funding deal negotiated by Trump/Thune/Johnson not preferable?

And doesn’t a CR neuter many of the @DOGE cuts?

This seems like a pretty typical DC move. https://t.co/SQyHbbOWuh

73% of Americans approve of what DOGE is doing in the executive branch

YES on the CR and YES on the soon-to-come DOGE Act to:
- eliminate fraud, waste, and abuse 
- deliver real budget cuts 
- secure the America First agenda
- drain the swamp

Here are 5 reasons we need to pass the CR asap:

1. Keeps DOGE, ICE, and Border Patrol funded

2. Increases defense spending and decreases non-defense spending

3. The heavy DOGE cuts will be in September’s budget after DOGE creates full reports on what to cut (they’re still https://t.co/sg6lhI2mCa

Auchincloss to Rep. Tony Gonzalez after Gonzalez touts the popularity of DOGE: "Is it popular to cut healthcare for the 40% of kids in this country who rely on Medicaid to pay for tax cuts for people who don't need tax cuts? https://t.co/YOxhp2OzVy

Rick Scott defends Elon Musk and DOGE’s recommendations for job cuts. 🔥🎯

 https://t.co/d3kVPx1AgR

Why 6 month spending freeze “CR?” 1) Keep lights on for @elonmusk &amp; DOGE, 2) Dems WANT shutdown to stop Elon, 3) No earmarks, 3) No big omnibus, 4) 72 hrs to read, 5) Set up White House to impound &amp; identify waste 6) set up cuts in fy26, &amp; 7) Freeze / stop spending increase.

I assume some people have tried to quantify the DOGE job cuts this year and impact to unemployment.  I found this from RBC and was surprised the 200-500k potential DOGE driven job cuts really don't impact unemployment at all.  Anyone else have a different view? https://t.co/f3RwbEVR9i

The February jobs report out Friday offered few surprises for investors, with job gains increasing slightly and the unemployment rate rising to 4.1%. 

With the DOGE job cuts in focus, federal government employment declined by 10,000 in February. https://t.co/rbVqXueLiz https://t.co/DL2ZqVrvXC

Sen. Rick Scott defended Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency's recommendations for federal job cuts, telling CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday that Americans are "fed up" with government spending and waste.  https://t.co/yKQW8fd8nx

.@jaketapper presses @SenRickScott on Musk’s DOGE cuts: “Are you comfortable with Republican elected officials basically going to beg the richest man in the world, an unelected, un-Senate-confirmed person, to have to save American jobs? Is that OK with you?” https://t.co/eIvcLekq43

Stroke of the pen risk. That’s what businesses and investors call the risk the President will, in an instant, dramatically change tariffs, DOGE cuts to government jobs and funding, and immigration policy using an executive order. Whether using an EO for these actions is legal is

NEW: The DOD and DOGE have said they plan to cut climate programs in the Pentagon — but officials &amp; experts are warning that climate efforts at DOD are directly linked to military readiness, and say cuts could put troops and military operations at risk. 
https://t.co/UntIvOeUNf

President Donald Trump said the US economy faces “a period of transition,” deflecting concerns about the risks of a US slowdown as his early focus on tariffs and federal job cuts cause market turmoil. https://t.co/j2NK5ZdHEK

President Donald Trump said the US economy faces “a period of transition,” deflecting concerns about the risks of a US slowdown as his early focus on tariffs and federal job cuts cause market turmoil. https://t.co/SB6n3rFLAz

Significant budget cuts across federal agencies are implemented, including substantial reductions to the National Institutes of Health and the cancellation of DEI programs and wasteful contracts. These cuts, aimed at reducing government waste, have sparked widespread controversy, with critics arguing they harm vital services like cancer research and education, while supporters claim they target inefficiency and save taxpayer money.

Big Federal Cuts

Trump, Musk and DOGE are making massive cuts to the National Institutes of Health.

I know there is a lot going on right now, but this is one of worst things they have done so far, will affect cancer research and trials, the search for cures, science, innovation and

🚨Breaking News!!! 
There's  been a lot of activity inside of the Deep State's Headquarters surrounding D.O.G.E. They are outraged over some of the vital cuts @DOGE is making. We had hidden cameras set up and caught them making plans to shut D.O.G.E. down, please share this video https://t.co/d52k9teYxZ

When will Americans begin to see the refunds of our tax dollars from the @DOGE cuts?

By now, only a fool doesn’t see the scam. Every service DOGE guts? You’re not seeing a dime of it. Not for roads, not for schools, not for you. It’s all getting funneled straight into billionaire tax cuts while they lick their fingers clean. They call your lifeline "waste" and

Trump &amp; GOP Congress seem to be replacing nearly all promised spending cuts with up to $8 trillion in new tax cuts &amp; spending hikes.

But DOGE killed a few govt contracts &amp; Politico subscriptions saving 0.01% of federal spending, so I guess my criticism makes me a liberal RINO.🙄

Oh, you sweet summer child.

You voted for this and think DOGE’s cuts won’t affect graduate student funding and stipends. How precious.

FAFO You’ve passed the FA step. Say hello to FO. https://t.co/OVDf74cNrB

Co-founder of Palantir &amp; major investor in Anduril Joe Lonsdale explicitly admits DOGE “cuts” are being implemented by fellow Thielites to reduce competition for global autonomous murder drone contracts https://t.co/9WY0FN6v4s https://t.co/uVlazwGt8n

I hope DOGE cuts off funding to the labcoat spergs who torture beagles “for science” https://t.co/jrxNFf2Se9

President Donald Trump said Friday that Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) chair Elon Musk is "doing a great job" uncovering areas of the federal government that are ripe for efficiency cuts. https://t.co/JrWxzz6iIM

John Bolton says DOGE cuts hurt ‘long-term American interests’ https://t.co/4uRfx64iII

*DOGE cuts government waste*

the left… https://t.co/qSC57S4AWg

People angry at DOGE over USAID cuts should really be angry at the Democrats who used it as a slush fund. Don’t abuse the funding and the people Democrats swear will be most hurt by these cuts continue receiving aid. 🤷🏼‍♀️

Democrats try to enter Department of Education amid outrage over possible DOGE cuts
As they surrounded a man in front of Department of Education door, lawmakers repeatedly insisted that they had the right to enter the building. https://t.co/vlKK4APUAM

DC federal workers in a 'panic' over novel experience of job insecurity with Trump cuts https://t.co/ikJWM3nZIr

President Trump Directs DOGE to Find Corruption, Incompetence, Cuts  

https://t.co/JZR3ugbduY https://t.co/1tERSwTjzG

I've already received a few messages and DMs from local agents about the cooling effect that DOGE and federal spending cuts are having on D.C.'s housing market

Anecdotal noise? or material impact? 

Will have to wait and see https://t.co/KChkUdHokp

🔥 DOGE Cuts &amp; Savings🔥

✅ Federal Employee Buyout Program – 💰 $30.00B
✅ NIH Research Admin Overhead – 💰 $4.00B
✅ OPM DEI Contract – 💰 $516.81M
✅ Unoccupied Lease Cancellations &amp; DEI Contract (Week 1) – 💰 $420.00M
✅ USAID DEI Contract – 💰 $375.14M
✅ 199 Wasteful https://t.co/26nRtQlJcO

Sunday shows preview: DOGE cuts leave feds reeling; Lawmakers race to finalize Trump budget bill https://t.co/tIrgizXVmA

NEWS Major cuts to DEI across government. The Education Dept. under President Trump just canceled $15M in grants for DEI programs at 3 universities, California State University, L.A.; Virginia Commonwealth University; and the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota. DOGE has now https://t.co/jXkMbKdDOS

So when media reports on DOGE slicing into federal agencies, media should rightfully ask and include in the report whether he had previous dealings with said agency or was under investigation by said agency. These cuts aren't about efficiency. https://t.co/1Bx4r6W6bL

What @elonmusk &amp; @DOGE are doing is basically Zero-Based Budgeting—justifying every dollar spent.

Before? Incremental Budgeting, where waste piled up unchecked.

These cuts aren’t extreme—the real extreme was decades of reckless spending with no real audits. ✂️ https://t.co/mfllKFanaS

The biggest cuts by @DOGE so far are:

1) Federal employee buy out
2) NIH overhead

The rest is mostly DEI, ambiguous “consulting”, and unused office spaces. https://t.co/XkpOUi7cyu

🚨🇺🇸 National Institutes of Health (NIH) cuts billions in overhead

Last year, approximately $9B of the $36B research money granted to the NIH was used as overhead.

NIH lowered the maximum “indirect cost” rate to 15%, which results in annual savings of $4B effective immediately. https://t.co/VIk0dra2oT

THE DOGE LEDGER: Tracking Doge’s Wins for You

OPN set out to establish The Doge Ledger, a three-weekly column documenting the cuts in waste, fraud, and abuse at the hands of DOGE. So, what did DOGE get into this week?
https://t.co/VkDieySmEf

⭕ DOGE Cuts 199 Wasteful Contracts, Saving $250M+ 💰🔥

🔻 35 agencies coordinated to slash wasteful spending.
🔻 Axed: Sri Lanka climate change project &amp; DEI workshop.
🔻 Trump admin prioritizing efficiency &amp; accountability. 🚨🇺🇸

This is why I’ve been measuring DOGE’s savings per taxpayer. In three weeks, Elon has saved all 152 million income tax filers about $454 dollars each.
At $2T in cuts, he will have saved all 152m income tax filers ~$13k each. https://t.co/Ycj0uIRuea

Significant spending cuts, saving American taxpayers approximately $1 billion per day by targeting government waste, DEI programs, and foreign aid like condom funding in Gaza. These aggressive reductions, alongside proposed cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and institutions like the World Bank, have sparked both support for fiscal accountability and criticism over potential deficit increases and austerity measures.

WTF Spending

With all these funding cuts and DOGE, are the Americans trying austerity? It didn’t go so well in the UK, causing thousands of deaths, stripping public services of funding and communities of third spaces and having the opposite of the desired effect on the economy

BREAKING NEWS!

After only a week in power $DOGE is now saving American Tax payers $1 billion per day and targeting $3 billion per day in Government spending cuts!!! https://t.co/nBbFwzxyTW

"A Republican representative who is a member of the DOGE Caucus told me personally that there will be cuts to Social Security and Medicare. 

These cuts are being proposed to offset the cost of tax handouts for billionaires." - Alex Lawson https://t.co/DFFxjNFjLN

Trump Administration cuts $50 million funding for CONDOMS in Gaza. 

The White House has cut the USAID funding providing millions of condoms to Gaza as part of the DOGE departments cuts to government waste. 

In 2020, it was revealed that Palestinians had been using condoms to https://t.co/4u8ULfkgbf

A few things to note on the government jobs announcements / headlines / hyperbole around the DOGE job cuts.

As a % of the overall labor force, the federal government is already hovering at all-time lows. https://t.co/HUyEHGEpn3

Ex-Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross says World Bank should be key target for Elon Musk’s DOGE spending cuts https://t.co/aoMB1J4r1Q https://t.co/dKqHe5LQgs

It's been several hours since the @DOGE posted and we're having withdrawals 😳 

MORE CUTS LFG!!!!!!! ✂️ 🪓

Join our memecoin community and help bring awareness and accountability to government spending and over-regulation. https://t.co/pBnSpyAxqC

Someone explain to me like I am 5 how we went from DOGE promising $2T in annual spending cuts to Rs now contemplating adding an additional $1T to annual deficits? 🤡 https://t.co/JFUNliX6aw

I'm back &amp; live at 12pm MDT

Canada needs a DOGE! 

Let's get those cuts. 

Guest: Myke Thomas says the unthinkable on the Green Line "Gondek is right"

News, rants &amp; more. 

Tune in!

https://t.co/tG7zVn0BJc

🚨 DOGE cuts another $45mil DEI program

This is the way. 

You’ve been paying for garbage. https://t.co/JDaZVVM6rI

Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency touted the savings they are already bringing to the American tax payer.

On X DOGE claimed to be be saving approximately $1 billion per day through cuts to hiring, DEI programs and payments to foreign organizations. https://t.co/8BpB0OAwqq

They might not have a choice. Trump is planning to shrink the government anyway. So either take the buyout or gamble that your job will be there after he makes cuts like it's the Raddision. https://t.co/gmOv8SpQCY

YTC = Yield to Career

Bond market also needs to recalibrate to the idea that @realDonaldTrump might actually *reduce* the deficit with aggressive cuts to Federal spending he has always communicated (I.e. @DOGE ), but the bond market chose to fade.

Goldmilio https://t.co/slRsnthpMV

Trump's policies regarding deportation, exiting the climate scam, removing DEI, DOGE expense cuts+tax cuts, deregulation, and tariffs resulting in more foreign investment, will simultaneously raise wages while putting extreme downward pressure on inflation. That's how we roll.

Video: Michael Bull, CCIM interviews K.C. Conway on expectations for 2025, including interest rates, inflation, oil, DOGE, deportation, tariffs, tax cuts, and the impact on the economy and real estate. https://t.co/RU6aOa02Tm

There is a strong push among Republican figures and supporters to codify the DOGE cuts, with Rep. Byron Donalds and others emphasizing their importance following the passage of President Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill.' Frustration is evident as many criticize the GOP and House leadership for delays in solidifying these cuts, urging immediate action to address government spending.

Codifying Cuts

Vought says this bill sets us up to make the DOGE cuts permanent. 

We will need to see how that actually happens. 

Rescissions? Impoundments? https://t.co/r6eayOoIs2

A lot of well-meaning folks in MAGA on X are complaining about the "do-nothing" GOP Congress.

Am I missing something?

Didn't they just pass the SAVE ACT and the BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL?  As "nothing" goes, that's a lot.

As far as not pushing through all of the #DOGE cuts, um, are

HELLO GOP!

TODAY WOULD BE A GREAT DAY TO PASS THE DOGE CUTS…

…BEFORE YOU GO ON ANOTHER VACATION!!!!!

When does @SpeakerJohnson start pushing for the codification of the DOGE cuts?

Republicans refusing to codify the DOGE cuts was an immeasurable failure. https://t.co/aN6Jl7C48s

BREAKING: Rep. Byron Donalds says DOGE cuts will be next after President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” fully passes.

RUSS VOUGHT: We are going to send up rescissions bills.

We have a $9 billion package of DOGE cuts almost ready to go up. Why the delay?

Because the House actually wants to pass it and we have been working with House appropriators to get it done.

@russvought @RussVought47 https://t.co/euEQmwXwon

Speaker Johnson deserves no praise… President Trump had to step in and whip the support for the Big Beautiful Bill.

Mike has yet to solidify the DOGE cuts or codify President Trump‘s executive orders. 

He has yet to censure or expel rep LaMonica McIver

The dude has no idea

On May 22, 2025, the DOGE clock showed $460 billion in cuts. If DOGE achieves $1 trillion in savings this year, how should the funds be used? Should they:

A. Be returned to taxpayers,
B. Stay in the Treasury,
C. Pay down the national debt,
D. A mix of all three? https://t.co/uzpqCSVaib

The Republicans in the House and Representatives and Senate have ensured that Elon Musk won't be involved with elections because of their failure to enact DOGE spending cuts. @SenateGOP @HouseGOP

🚨Future Governor of Florida Byron Donalds demands DOGE cuts hit the House Floor next once Trump's Big Beautiful Bill passes in the Senate: 

"The DOGE stuff has to hit the floor. Let's let the Senate get the Big Beautiful Bill to the President's desk.. recission package next." https://t.co/5GOUq1zI2h

Forgive me if I’m not celebrating for Speaker Johnson, the spineless hack should’ve had the DOGE cuts codified and this bill on President Trump’s desk months ago.

Time for @SenateGOP and @LeaderJohnThune to get to work on the Big, Beautiful Bill.

Including no tax on SS and adding DOGE cuts would go a long way towards restoring trust. And they better leave in the defunding of Planned Parenthood!

Time to get it done!

If Republicans can't codify the DOGE cuts, what good is the Republican Party at all?

I would like to know why, too. Millions of Americans were stoked for DOGE cuts. Americans are fed up with our tax dollars being wasted. 

Taxes are theft. https://t.co/aMlo4RTgw8

More of this!!

Making doge cuts permanent !

Rescissions bills are coming!

Let’s go @DOGE https://t.co/vek3jBf37R

The Big Beautiful Bill is not a 💯win BUT it IS historical with many positives. 

Im not going to trash this bill but Im disappointed in DOGE cuts not being codified.

🚨 BREAKING: Byron Donalds (R-FL) says @DOGE Cuts are NEXT after Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill passes the Senate!  

Time to Drain the Swamp &amp; Save our Economy! 🇺🇸

Thank you @elonmusk! 

Will @SpeakerJohnson &amp; @LeaderJohnThune actually get it done? https://t.co/iR2fnDpNkI

No, there aren’t.

We didn’t codify a single DOGE cut, which means there were no actual cuts. And the idea that they’ll cut spending without reconciliation is laughable.

Stop dangling this carrot. It’s insulting at this point. https://t.co/8vX8eyloDy

Dear @SpeakerJohnson and @LeaderJohnThune, solidify the DOGE cuts!

It’s time. https://t.co/Nw4oQGYu93

Good morning, X. Let's hope Republicans in Congress start to pick up some of President Trumps worth ethic and codify his Executive orders, defund the DC courts and codify DOGE cuts..
Let's keep them on their toes, MAGA🇺🇸💪

Time to pass the DOGE cuts! https://t.co/k7sEROqS53

Does the "Big Beautiful Bill" codify DOGE cuts?

Rep. Byron Donalds says DOGE cuts will be next after President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” fully passes. https://t.co/EJBufMH6Lr

🚨Just In: Byron Donalds says DOGE cuts will be next on the list after the Big, Beautiful Bill fully passes.

DOGE and the Trump administration have implemented significant budget cuts totaling $160 billion, though costs of $135 billion nearly offset these savings, leading to widespread layoffs including nearly half of all job cuts this year. Critics argue the cuts, which have resulted in over 200,000 job losses and impacted vital services, provide minimal taxpayer benefit while facing resistance from Republican lawmakers and sparking public backlash.

Cuts Spark Controversy

DOGE Cuts

A first look at DOGE’s impact on government spending  As of April 20, DOGE cited total savings of $160 billion with itemized grant savings of $33 billion, contract savings  of $30 billion and real estate savings of $311 million.  Total itemized savings are well below https://t.co/Glh1xwpT2J

DOGE initially promised to save taxpayers $2 trillion. 

Now it admits it's only delivered $160B in cuts.

And even those minimal savings are nearly wiped out by the cost of implementing DOGE's cuts: $135B.

We're losing vital government services for basically nothing in return.

INBOX: “@VUMChealth just laid off a bunch of research staff. I was one of them.”

Messages to us👇🏽confirm this Reddit thread that Trump/Elon/DOGE cuts have hit Vanderbilt: https://t.co/LxgOq7dL5u

Hey @MarshaBlackburn @SenatorHagerty are y’all gonna speak up for Tennesseans? https://t.co/NIN11wPeNT

🇺🇸DOGE CONTRACT CUTS: YOUR TAXES SLIGHTLY LESS WASTED

In just 48 hours, feds killed 401 contracts worth up to $2.1B—because someone finally read the receipts.

Among the greatest hits:

– $276K for a “Kenya program coordinator” (Treasury—because D.C. runs Kenya now?)

– $228K https://t.co/pY3Y0bjMOl https://t.co/5T2uk3rBbM

President Trump has submitted a budget with $163 billion in DOGE cuts, vowing to end the "weaponized" bureaucracy.
https://t.co/SL0emW5oiv

Is DOGE truly increasing efficiency with its cuts?  Why haven't doge gone after the real source of waste the pentagon?

DOGE's 222,000 job cuts in 2025 aimed to boost efficiency, claiming $160B in savings. However, costs of $135B, including unemployment and lost taxes, yield only

DOGE’s cost-cutting reality:

283,172 job cuts directly from DOGE actions

6,945 additional layoffs from DOGE’s downstream impact

$135 billion lost in tax revenue &amp; severance costs

And *REFORM* want a British Doge.
#Reform #ReformUK 

What do you think? https://t.co/aN1Vq3o7nA

Report: DOGE cuts behind nearly half of all layoffs this year President Donald Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency is responsible for nearly half of all job cuts announced this year, according to a new report. The report from outplacement firm C...
https://t.co/EgxXoSJ07h

DOGE's initiatives led to **216,670** job cuts. In addition, independent analyses suggest that DOGE taxpayers approximately **$135 billion**

Reform wants to create a British DOGE. https://t.co/Zv0vzizCOu

White House officials have in recent weeks brainstormed strategies for enshrining into law the government cuts implemented by billionaire Elon Musk’s team, aiming to turn the U.S. DOGE Service’s moves into lasting policy shifts. https://t.co/Iz327rfYtp

This market will resolve based on federal government current expenditures as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

This market will resolve to the amount federal government current expenditures decrease by between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. 

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the Q4 2024 value minus the Q4 2025 value. 

The figures will be based on the initial Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. 

The figures will be based on the Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as soon as the data for Q4 2025 becomes available, regardless of whether later revisions are made.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that creates a ‘DOGE dividend’ by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any cash transfer, tax credit, or other comparable financial transfer which is referred to as a DOGE dividend, or which is otherwise directly funded by savings created by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will qualify.  

Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump create a DOGE dividend in 2025? 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if DOGE or Elon Musk confirm that gold is missing from Fort Knox between March 10, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Only definitive statements which are based on audit or investigation of Fort Knox will count. 

If an audit by DOGE or Elon Musk confirms that there is no gold missing from Fort Knox, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency.

Will DOGE confirm Gold missing from Fort Knox?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Dogecoin in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Dogecoin does not count as holding Dogecoin reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is a guest on any "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast episode between December 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a consensus of credible reporting confirms Elon Musk recorded an episode with Rogan before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when/if it is released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Spotify and/or Youtube, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?

This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001)

This market will resolve according to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees between the December 2024 report and the December 2025 report.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the December 2025 value.

The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial December 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on January 9, 2026. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.


Will Elon and DOGE cut 150-200k employees in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk (@elonmusk) changes his X profile picture by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's X account: https://x.com/elonmusk

For an example of what Elon Musk's X pfp was at the time of this market's inception, see this link: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elonmuskpfp12042025.png


Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between June 5, and  December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Elon Musk?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for DOGEUSDT between 12 Mar '25 15:00 and 31 Dec '25 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the DOGEUSDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/DOGE_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance DOGEUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Dogecoin all time high before 2026?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 see (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 10% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,396,126,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).


Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX has between 160 (inclusive) and 179 (inclusive) launches in 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the FAA, specifically the number shown next to SpaceX when 2025 is selected here https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data.

Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the successor to Elon Musk as CEO of Tesla by December 31, 2025. 

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Tesla.

The resolution source will be public statements from Tesla.

Will no CEO be announced in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led by him, enters into an agreement to buy OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announced agreement between Elon Musk and OpenAI will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

An agreement to merge with an entity led by Elon Musk will count toward "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is officially deported from the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Elon Musk from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.

The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.

Will Trump deport Elon Musk in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the budget is balanced for the 2025 fiscal year, i.e. if revenue minus spending is 0 or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the Federal Surplus/Deficit published by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) here https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD. 

 This market will resolve according to the first data release from the OMB - any further updates won't be considered.


Will DOGE balance the budget in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Lighter's token is greater than $1,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Lighter doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is any rank other than #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at any point between June 30, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If this source becomes permanently unavailable in that time period, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If both sources become permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?

This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk attends any official UFC match between August 15 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Elon Musk attend a UFC event by December 31?

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.

To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.

The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.

Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.

OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.

Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.

If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.

If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will 

The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MegaETH's token is greater than $2,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If MegaETH doesn't launch a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 3 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 3 rate cuts by then.

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 4 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that Elon Musk has visited visited Little Saint James by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place Elon Musk on the island.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

# of jobs Elon and DOGE cut in first 6 months?

<25k
$152,926 Vol.
No

25-50k
$126,302 Vol.
No

50-100k
$750,321 Vol.
Yes

100-200k
$371,865 Vol.
No

200k+
$440,849 Vol.
No

Market Context

# of jobs Elon and DOGE cut in first 6 months?

Rules

# of jobs Elon and DOGE cut in first 6 months?

Market Context

# of jobs Elon and DOGE cut in first 6 months?

About

Related

# of jobs Elon and DOGE cut in first 6 months?

<25k$152,926 Vol.Nocircle xmark

25-50k$126,302 Vol.Nocircle xmark

50-100k$750,321 Vol.Yescircle check

100-200k$371,865 Vol.Nocircle xmark

200k+$440,849 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

# of jobs Elon and DOGE cut in first 6 months?

Rules

# of jobs Elon and DOGE cut in first 6 months?

Market Context

# of jobs Elon and DOGE cut in first 6 months?

About

Related

<25k
$152,926 Vol.
No

25-50k
$126,302 Vol.
No

50-100k
$750,321 Vol.
Yes

100-200k
$371,865 Vol.
No

200k+
$440,849 Vol.
No