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Politics·Primaries

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Darializa Avila Chevalier 62%

Adriano Espaillat 38%

Matt Miller <1%

Oscar Romero <1%

Polymarket

$34,271 Vol.

Darializa Avila Chevalier 62%

Adriano Espaillat 38%

Matt Miller <1%

Oscar Romero <1%

Polymarket

$34,271 Vol.

Darializa Avila Chevalier

$7,850 Vol.

62%

Adriano Espaillat

$9,137 Vol.

38%

Matt Miller

$3,982 Vol.

<1%

Oscar Romero

$6,581 Vol.

<1%

Jaleel Amador

$934 Vol.

<1%

Theo Chino-Tavarez

$1,960 Vol.

<1%

James Felton Keith

$2,195 Vol.

<1%

Megan Rodriguez

$1,632 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Darializa Avila Chevalier holds a clear lead in the NY-13 Democratic primary trader consensus due to her strong progressive backing, including an endorsement from Mayor Zohran Mamdani, robust fundraising, and appeal among voters frustrated with establishment figures on issues like housing affordability and foreign policy. Incumbent Adriano Espaillat, a five-term representative, maintains significant name recognition and institutional support but faces a competitive challenge in key areas such as Harlem, where recent forums and debates have highlighted divisions over campaign finance, immigration enforcement, and community priorities. Internal polling has shown Chevalier closing gaps or leading after messaging on her platform, while other candidates remain marginal. The June 23 primary remains closely watched, with turnout among Democratic primary voters in Upper Manhattan and the Bronx serving as the decisive factor in this high-profile intraparty contest.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$34,271
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Darializa Avila Chevalier holds a clear lead in the NY-13 Democratic primary trader consensus due to her strong progressive backing, including an endorsement from Mayor Zohran Mamdani, robust fundraising, and appeal among voters frustrated with establishment figures on issues like housing affordability and foreign policy. Incumbent Adriano Espaillat, a five-term representative, maintains significant name recognition and institutional support but faces a competitive challenge in key areas such as Harlem, where recent forums and debates have highlighted divisions over campaign finance, immigration enforcement, and community priorities. Internal polling has shown Chevalier closing gaps or leading after messaging on her platform, while other candidates remain marginal. The June 23 primary remains closely watched, with turnout among Democratic primary voters in Upper Manhattan and the Bronx serving as the decisive factor in this high-profile intraparty contest.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$34,271
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Darializa Avila Chevalier" at 62%, followed by "Adriano Espaillat" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 62¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $34.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 19, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Darializa Avila Chevalier" at 62%, meaning the market assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Adriano Espaillat" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.