Market icon
World·TSA

Number of TSA Passengers April 4?

Market icon
World·TSA

Number of TSA Passengers April 4?

Apr 2

Apr 3

Apr 4

Apr 2

Apr 3

Apr 4

<3.0M 96%

3.0M-3.2M 41%

3.2M-3.4M 6%

3.4M-3.6M <1%

Polymarket
NEW

<3.0M 96%

3.0M-3.2M 41%

3.2M-3.4M 6%

3.4M-3.6M <1%

Polymarket
NEW

<3.0M

$282 Vol.

80%

3.0M-3.2M

$0 Vol.

41%

3.2M-3.4M

$1,055 Vol.

6%

3.4M-3.6M

$1,141 Vol.

<1%

3.6M-3.8M

$1,075 Vol.

<1%

>3.8M

$1,053 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 4, 2026. If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Polymarket trader consensus prices a 76.5% implied probability for fewer than 3.0 million TSA checkpoint passengers on April 4, driven by sustained sub-3 million daily screenings amid a partial government shutdown crippling TSA staffing. April 1 recorded 2.36 million travelers, following March 31's 2.15 million low and a two-week average of 2.53 million, with peaks capped at 2.87 million on March 22—down roughly 12% year-over-year in spots despite spring break demand for 171 million March-April flyers. High officer call-out rates (40-50%), four-hour lines, and flight cuts have suppressed volumes, positioning 3.0-3.2 million (41% priced) as a distant secondary amid Easter weekend proximity on April 5. Data releases typically follow the next day.

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 4, 2026.

If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.

If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Volume
$4,606
End Date
Apr 4, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 4:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 4, 2026. If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 4, 2026. If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Polymarket trader consensus prices a 76.5% implied probability for fewer than 3.0 million TSA checkpoint passengers on April 4, driven by sustained sub-3 million daily screenings amid a partial government shutdown crippling TSA staffing. April 1 recorded 2.36 million travelers, following March 31's 2.15 million low and a two-week average of 2.53 million, with peaks capped at 2.87 million on March 22—down roughly 12% year-over-year in spots despite spring break demand for 171 million March-April flyers. High officer call-out rates (40-50%), four-hour lines, and flight cuts have suppressed volumes, positioning 3.0-3.2 million (41% priced) as a distant secondary amid Easter weekend proximity on April 5. Data releases typically follow the next day.

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 4, 2026.

If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.

If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Volume
$4,606
End Date
Apr 4, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 4:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 4, 2026. If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Number of TSA Passengers April 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<3.0M" at 80%, followed by "3.0M-3.2M" at 41%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 80¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Number of TSA Passengers April 4?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Number of TSA Passengers April 4?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Number of TSA Passengers April 4?" is "<3.0M" at 80%, meaning the market assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.0M-3.2M" at 41%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Number of TSA Passengers April 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.