Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

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Next President of Iran?

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Next President of Iran?

Mohammad Mokhber 100.0%

Gholam-Hossein Esmaeili 100.0%

Moshen Rezaee 100.0%

Other (Incl. Pezeshkian) 100.0%

Polymarket

$246,855 Vol.

Mohammad Mokhber 100.0%

Gholam-Hossein Esmaeili 100.0%

Moshen Rezaee 100.0%

Other (Incl. Pezeshkian) 100.0%

Polymarket

$246,855 Vol.

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Mohammad Mokhber

$9,246 Vol.

No

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Gholam-Hossein Esmaeili

$4,755 Vol.

No

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Moshen Rezaee

$10,468 Vol.

No

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Other (Incl. Pezeshkian)

$39,807 Vol.

Yes

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Saeed Jalili

$75,406 Vol.

No

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Mehrdad Bazrpash

$5,669 Vol.

No

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Ali Larijani

$12,723 Vol.

No

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Javad Zarif

$9,437 Vol.

No

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Ali Akbar Salehi

$9,057 Vol.

No

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Abdolnaser Hemmati

$8,016 Vol.

No

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Ali Shamkhani

$7,233 Vol.

No

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Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

$36,537 Vol.

No

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Mojtaba Khamenei

$11,455 Vol.

No

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Hassan Rouhani

$7,044 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mohammad Mokhber becomes the next permanent President of Iran. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any interim or acting president will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The announcement of which candidates will be approved to run for President is currently scheduled for June 11. If this candidate is officially not approved to run for President, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If the next President of Iran is not instated by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$246,855
End Date
Jul 20, 2024
Market Opened
May 20, 2024, 10:09 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mohammad Mokhber becomes the next permanent President of Iran. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any interim or acting president will not count toward the resolution of this market. The announcement of which candidates will be approved to run for President is currently scheduled for June 11. If this candidate is officially not approved to run for President, this market will immediately resolve to "No". If the next President of Iran is not instated by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next President of Iran?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Other (Incl. Pezeshkian)" at 100%, followed by "Mohammad Mokhber" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next President of Iran?" has generated $246.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 21, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next President of Iran?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next President of Iran?" is "Other (Incl. Pezeshkian)" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mohammad Mokhber" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next President of Iran?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.