Market icon
Tech·Big Tech

NASA Artemis II

Market icon
Tech·Big Tech

NASA Artemis II

$677,422 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$677,422 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31

$185,815 Vol.

<1%

April 30

$112,907 Vol.

78%

If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.NASA's Artemis II mission, the first crewed flight of the SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft to orbit the Moon, targets no earlier than September 2025 amid steady progress on key hardware milestones. Recent developments include the Orion crew module's shipment to Kennedy Space Center in October 2024 for final outfitting and vibration testing completion, addressing lingering heat shield concerns from the uncrewed Artemis I test in 2022. The four-astronaut crew—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen—continues integrated rehearsals, while ongoing life support system upgrades mitigate risks identified in prior reviews. Trader sentiment hinges on NASA's track record of delays due to technical and budgetary hurdles, with upcoming launch readiness reviews and fiscal 2025 funding debates as pivotal catalysts that could shift timelines in this high-stakes return-to-Moon program.

NASA's Artemis II mission, the first crewed flight of the SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft to orbit the Moon, targets no earlier than September 2025 amid steady progress on key hardware milestones. Recent developments include the Orion crew module's shipment to Kennedy Space Center in October 2024 for final outfitting and vibration testing completion, addressing lingering heat shield concerns from the uncrewed Artemis I test in 2022. The four-astronaut crew—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen—continues integrated rehearsals, while ongoing life support system upgrades mitigate risks identified in prior reviews. Trader sentiment hinges on NASA's track record of delays due to technical and budgetary hurdles, with upcoming launch readiness reviews and fiscal 2025 funding debates as pivotal catalysts that could shift timelines in this high-stakes return-to-Moon program.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.NASA's Artemis II mission, the first crewed flight of the SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft to orbit the Moon, targets no earlier than September 2025 amid steady progress on key hardware milestones. Recent developments include the Orion crew module's shipment to Kennedy Space Center in October 2024 for final outfitting and vibration testing completion, addressing lingering heat shield concerns from the uncrewed Artemis I test in 2022. The four-astronaut crew—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen—continues integrated rehearsals, while ongoing life support system upgrades mitigate risks identified in prior reviews. Trader sentiment hinges on NASA's track record of delays due to technical and budgetary hurdles, with upcoming launch readiness reviews and fiscal 2025 funding debates as pivotal catalysts that could shift timelines in this high-stakes return-to-Moon program.

NASA's Artemis II mission, the first crewed flight of the SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft to orbit the Moon, targets no earlier than September 2025 amid steady progress on key hardware milestones. Recent developments include the Orion crew module's shipment to Kennedy Space Center in October 2024 for final outfitting and vibration testing completion, addressing lingering heat shield concerns from the uncrewed Artemis I test in 2022. The four-astronaut crew—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen—continues integrated rehearsals, while ongoing life support system upgrades mitigate risks identified in prior reviews. Trader sentiment hinges on NASA's track record of delays due to technical and budgetary hurdles, with upcoming launch readiness reviews and fiscal 2025 funding debates as pivotal catalysts that could shift timelines in this high-stakes return-to-Moon program.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

85%
Market icon

Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?

57%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"NASA Artemis II" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 30" at 79%, followed by "March 31" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NASA Artemis II" has generated $677.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NASA Artemis II," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NASA Artemis II" is "April 30" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 31" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NASA Artemis II" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.