Market icon
Tech·Big Tech

NASA Artemis II

Market icon
Tech·Big Tech

NASA Artemis II

$678,120 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$678,120 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31

$185,890 Vol.

<1%

April 30

$113,530 Vol.

77%

If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.NASA's Artemis II mission, the first crewed Orion flight test orbiting the Moon since Apollo 17, remains on track for a September 2025 launch from Kennedy Space Center atop the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket. Recent progress includes the Orion spacecraft's successful completion of acoustic and vibration testing in October 2024 at Kennedy, confirming structural integrity post-Artemis I heat shield review, while the SLS core stage arrived for final stacking. Crew members—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Jeremy Hansen, and Christina Koch—advanced simulations amid resolved battery and valve issues. Traders watch for potential slips from historical delays, with key catalysts like electromagnetic interference tests and launch rehearsals in early 2025; regulatory approvals and weather remain low-probability risks in trader consensus.

NASA's Artemis II mission, the first crewed Orion flight test orbiting the Moon since Apollo 17, remains on track for a September 2025 launch from Kennedy Space Center atop the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket. Recent progress includes the Orion spacecraft's successful completion of acoustic and vibration testing in October 2024 at Kennedy, confirming structural integrity post-Artemis I heat shield review, while the SLS core stage arrived for final stacking. Crew members—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Jeremy Hansen, and Christina Koch—advanced simulations amid resolved battery and valve issues. Traders watch for potential slips from historical delays, with key catalysts like electromagnetic interference tests and launch rehearsals in early 2025; regulatory approvals and weather remain low-probability risks in trader consensus.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the Artemis II rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by February28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by NASA (https://www.youtube.com/nasa), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Artemis II with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.NASA's Artemis II mission, the first crewed Orion flight test orbiting the Moon since Apollo 17, remains on track for a September 2025 launch from Kennedy Space Center atop the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket. Recent progress includes the Orion spacecraft's successful completion of acoustic and vibration testing in October 2024 at Kennedy, confirming structural integrity post-Artemis I heat shield review, while the SLS core stage arrived for final stacking. Crew members—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Jeremy Hansen, and Christina Koch—advanced simulations amid resolved battery and valve issues. Traders watch for potential slips from historical delays, with key catalysts like electromagnetic interference tests and launch rehearsals in early 2025; regulatory approvals and weather remain low-probability risks in trader consensus.

NASA's Artemis II mission, the first crewed Orion flight test orbiting the Moon since Apollo 17, remains on track for a September 2025 launch from Kennedy Space Center atop the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket. Recent progress includes the Orion spacecraft's successful completion of acoustic and vibration testing in October 2024 at Kennedy, confirming structural integrity post-Artemis I heat shield review, while the SLS core stage arrived for final stacking. Crew members—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Jeremy Hansen, and Christina Koch—advanced simulations amid resolved battery and valve issues. Traders watch for potential slips from historical delays, with key catalysts like electromagnetic interference tests and launch rehearsals in early 2025; regulatory approvals and weather remain low-probability risks in trader consensus.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NASA Artemis II" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 30" at 77%, followed by "March 31" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 77¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NASA Artemis II" has generated $678.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NASA Artemis II," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NASA Artemis II" is "April 30" at 77%, meaning the market assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 31" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NASA Artemis II" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.