Meta's Mango AI model, a next-generation image and video generator designed to rival OpenAI's Sora and Google's Veo, remains in internal testing without a public release as of early April 2026, driving trader caution on near-term resolution markets. December 2025 Wall Street Journal reporting first revealed Mango's development alongside the text-focused Avocado large language model, both targeting a first-half 2026 debut from Meta's Superintelligence Labs. However, March leaks and New York Times coverage highlighted delays due to underwhelming performance against rivals like Gemini 3 and GPT-5, with variants like Avocado Mango agent pushed to at least May amid A/B tests routing some queries to external models. Upcoming catalysts include Meta's Q1 earnings call and potential F8 developer conference announcements, where capability demos or revised timelines could shift sentiment in this fast-evolving multimodal AI race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$22,055 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
March 31
<1%
June 30
41%
$22,055 Vol.
March 31
$19,794 Vol.
<1%
June 30
$2,260 Vol.
41%
Meta is developing a new frontier image and video-focused AI model codenamed “Mango”. You can read more about that here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.
A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.
Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public.
A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's Mango AI model, a next-generation image and video generator designed to rival OpenAI's Sora and Google's Veo, remains in internal testing without a public release as of early April 2026, driving trader caution on near-term resolution markets. December 2025 Wall Street Journal reporting first revealed Mango's development alongside the text-focused Avocado large language model, both targeting a first-half 2026 debut from Meta's Superintelligence Labs. However, March leaks and New York Times coverage highlighted delays due to underwhelming performance against rivals like Gemini 3 and GPT-5, with variants like Avocado Mango agent pushed to at least May amid A/B tests routing some queries to external models. Upcoming catalysts include Meta's Q1 earnings call and potential F8 developer conference announcements, where capability demos or revised timelines could shift sentiment in this fast-evolving multimodal AI race.
Meta is developing a new frontier image and video-focused AI model codenamed “Mango”. You can read more about that here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.
A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.
Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public.
A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.
A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.
Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public.
A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 22, 2025, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$22,055End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Meta is developing a new frontier image and video-focused AI model codenamed “Mango”. You can read more about that here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.
A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.
Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public.
A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's Mango AI model, a next-generation image and video generator designed to rival OpenAI's Sora and Google's Veo, remains in internal testing without a public release as of early April 2026, driving trader caution on near-term resolution markets. December 2025 Wall Street Journal reporting first revealed Mango's development alongside the text-focused Avocado large language model, both targeting a first-half 2026 debut from Meta's Superintelligence Labs. However, March leaks and New York Times coverage highlighted delays due to underwhelming performance against rivals like Gemini 3 and GPT-5, with variants like Avocado Mango agent pushed to at least May amid A/B tests routing some queries to external models. Upcoming catalysts include Meta's Q1 earnings call and potential F8 developer conference announcements, where capability demos or revised timelines could shift sentiment in this fast-evolving multimodal AI race.
Meta is developing a new frontier image and video-focused AI model codenamed “Mango”. You can read more about that here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.
A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.
Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public.
A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.
A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.
Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public.
A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$22,055End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Meta's Mango AI model, a next-generation image and video generator designed to rival OpenAI's Sora and Google's Veo, remains in internal testing without a public release as of early April 2026, driving trader caution on near-term resolution markets. December 2025 Wall Street Journal reporting first revealed Mango's development alongside the text-focused Avocado large language model, both targeting a first-half 2026 debut from Meta's Superintelligence Labs. However, March leaks and New York Times coverage highlighted delays due to underwhelming performance against rivals like Gemini 3 and GPT-5, with variants like Avocado Mango agent pushed to at least May amid A/B tests routing some queries to external models. Upcoming catalysts include Meta's Q1 earnings call and potential F8 developer conference announcements, where capability demos or revised timelines could shift sentiment in this fast-evolving multimodal AI race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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