Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a March 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.25–1.29ºC above pre-industrial levels at 63.2% implied probability, driven by preliminary Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis data through late March indicating an average around 1.27ºC versus the 1850–1900 baseline—calibrated closely to NOAA's forthcoming Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index resolution source. This positioning reflects cooling ENSO influences from emerging La Niña conditions suppressing extremes after the 2023–2024 El Niño peak, alongside persistent warming from reduced aerosol cooling and rising greenhouse gases, though below February's 1.49–1.55ºC records from Berkeley Earth and Copernicus. Key uncertainties include final NOAA adjustments and ocean heat adjustments; expect resolution post mid-April NOAA report amid model consensus for moderated spring anomalies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMarch 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.25–1.29ºC 67.7%
1.20–1.24ºC 16%
>1.29ºC 15.3%
1.15–1.19ºC 1.9%
$227,560 Vol.
$227,560 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
2%
1.20–1.24ºC
16%
1.25–1.29ºC
63%
>1.29ºC
15%
1.25–1.29ºC 67.7%
1.20–1.24ºC 16%
>1.29ºC 15.3%
1.15–1.19ºC 1.9%
$227,560 Vol.
$227,560 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$29,527 Vol.
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$33,347 Vol.
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$53,630 Vol.
2%
1.20–1.24ºC
$40,045 Vol.
16%
1.25–1.29ºC
$26,651 Vol.
63%
>1.29ºC
$44,360 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a March 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.25–1.29ºC above pre-industrial levels at 63.2% implied probability, driven by preliminary Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis data through late March indicating an average around 1.27ºC versus the 1850–1900 baseline—calibrated closely to NOAA's forthcoming Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index resolution source. This positioning reflects cooling ENSO influences from emerging La Niña conditions suppressing extremes after the 2023–2024 El Niño peak, alongside persistent warming from reduced aerosol cooling and rising greenhouse gases, though below February's 1.49–1.55ºC records from Berkeley Earth and Copernicus. Key uncertainties include final NOAA adjustments and ocean heat adjustments; expect resolution post mid-April NOAA report amid model consensus for moderated spring anomalies.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$227,560End Date
Apr 10, 2026Market Opened
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a March 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.25–1.29ºC above pre-industrial levels at 63.2% implied probability, driven by preliminary Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis data through late March indicating an average around 1.27ºC versus the 1850–1900 baseline—calibrated closely to NOAA's forthcoming Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index resolution source. This positioning reflects cooling ENSO influences from emerging La Niña conditions suppressing extremes after the 2023–2024 El Niño peak, alongside persistent warming from reduced aerosol cooling and rising greenhouse gases, though below February's 1.49–1.55ºC records from Berkeley Earth and Copernicus. Key uncertainties include final NOAA adjustments and ocean heat adjustments; expect resolution post mid-April NOAA report amid model consensus for moderated spring anomalies.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$227,560End Date
Apr 10, 2026Market Opened
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a March 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.25–1.29ºC above pre-industrial levels at 63.2% implied probability, driven by preliminary Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis data through late March indicating an average around 1.27ºC versus the 1850–1900 baseline—calibrated closely to NOAA's forthcoming Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index resolution source. This positioning reflects cooling ENSO influences from emerging La Niña conditions suppressing extremes after the 2023–2024 El Niño peak, alongside persistent warming from reduced aerosol cooling and rising greenhouse gases, though below February's 1.49–1.55ºC records from Berkeley Earth and Copernicus. Key uncertainties include final NOAA adjustments and ocean heat adjustments; expect resolution post mid-April NOAA report amid model consensus for moderated spring anomalies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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